Quote:
Originally Posted by unkated
While i agree with most of what Phil said, I have to disagree on a couple of points:
- Russian equipment is easier to maintain than most western equipment, designed to be maintained by less sophisticated technical crews. Accordingly it has rather high reliability. While they generally lag behind leading western designs, the Su-30 is a breakthrough design. OTOH, its electronics is still a couple steps behind western military electronics.
While i doubt Australian or other Western pilots have much to fear from Su-30s, I do worry that a tangle of Western and Russian aircraft over Syria can make a tangled situation much worse.
Uncle Ted |
Unless things have
dramatically changed with Russian military tech, and as far as I am aware they have not, 'simpler' does
not necessarily mean 'reliable' ... unless we're talking AKs or the like.
Anything sophisticated (like electronics, or jet aircraft ... hell, even tanks) the Russians field is generally far far less reliable than similar western equipment. Of course, it's usually cheaper, relatively, too, so they can field more of ... whatever ... and that means they can have many more of them in the field and hope to match the smaller numbers of western equivalents despite their r/s reliability.
And they have fewer techs to maintain and repair the stuff, and what they have are kept at higher organisation levels.
I guess they can keep the forces in Syria going, for a while, probably by cannibalising personnel and parts from all over Russia and shipping it there, but, even then I think the strain of doing so will soon become evident.
I'd hazard a guess their sortie rate will drop over time, and not because they are successful in wiping out IS, but simply because they won't be able to maintain it ...
In a real 3WW back in the day? Depends on how long it lasts. Short term? They might swamp the western allies, medium and longer? Probably not.
Now? With everyone drawn down dramatically, the relative balance of forces would be much the same ... so the Russians would be aiming for a quick victory and wouldn't be able to sustain their forces for long. Again, they might swamp the western allies, but probably not.
YMMV ... and, hey, it's not as if Putin's military are putting their maintenance and reliability data out there for everyone to see.
(However, the breakdown of that new AFV/APC in Red Square might be indicative that things may have become worse, not better ... the Moscow Divisions were always mostly for show, doing nothing but preparing for parades such as that ... and making sure there were no embarrassing breakdowns!)
Phil McGregor