Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
I hope that this doesn't escalate.
Putin's got a pretty solid track record of brinksmanship and unilateral action, often military, to protect Russian interests and pride.
I pray that cooler heads prevail.
EDIT: I just watched the video of the Turkmen Brigade blowing up the alleged rescue chopper with a TOW missile. Two things stand out. First, the heli was on the ground and its rotors weren't spinning at all. That seems odd to me. Second, the U.S. vetted and supplied this particular insurgent group TOW missiles, making it an accomplice to the destruction. This is worrying.
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This is the potential problem at hand. Putin in the eyes of the West is difficult to predict (which being a former agent of the KGB, is no surprise). He plays games of brinkmanship that so far, could be argued has won more than lost in his favor. Russia has successfully knocked down Georgia, taken the Crimea, re-established itself as a player in the Middle East by buttressing Assad's regime, etc. So far, the West's response has been, in the eyes of Moscow, rather divided and tepid at best (yes, I know, it's far more complicated, but I digress). Yes, the sanctions have taken a toll, but if Putin is able to spin the sanctions as proof that the West is out to get Russia and only Putin and Russian nationalism can stand up to Western decadence, what does he have to lose?
With all due respect to some of the comments posted here in response to Jason's post, I don't think it's fear mongering at all to point out that Moscow likely will not be happy about this. Will it lead to nuclear war or Turkey declaring Article V? No, I doubt it, at least for now. Could it lead to other "incidents" that could lead to a larger regional conflict that NATO is unprepared for due to most of the NATO members having at best miniscule defense budgets? Possibly. It all depends on what happens at both the top and on the ground, and the problem here is that there are so many variable factors at play with so many actors in this region makes it difficult to predict. NATO has already stated they stand by Turkey's decision, and the images of the rebels blowing up a Russian Hind (The Hind apparently was blown up AFTER it was forced to the ground by rebel AAA fire) with an American-manufactured TOW missile likely is just the sort of images Putin is going to use to stir the Russian public into a nationalistic frenzy.
"See?! The decadent American Nazis REALLY are out to smother Russian comrades under their jackboots, by using Western weapons supplied to their Islamist toadies!"