Are we waving a magic wand and completely removing N/B/C weapons from the battlefield? First of all, let me address this from the 1980s/90s perspective:
There's a lot of evidence to suggest we'd have had them. They would have wound up fuel-starved (and I'm not saying that based on the scenario presented in Red Storm Rising, I think tac air would have broken their supply lines) in a lot of cases. Based on things I've heard and actual Polish people I have spoken to, an attempt to "motivate" their socialist brethren in Poland to fight NATO would have fallen flat. There'd have been a lot of mutinies in Soviet-led Polish units. Again, that's based on discussions I've had with folks from Poland, so make of it what you will. That creates an enormous strategic problem for the Soviets - crossing hostile territory to even get to the battle area.
So say that's...seven divisions pinned down in Poland keeping them in line, assuming the Poles are just being passive-aggressive and not actively siding with NATO or declaring outright neutrality.
In the scenario, what's France doing? Are they honoring NATO commitments or sitting it out? That makes a big difference because if they are in on NATO's side obviously and directly, that's...what, eight, ten divisions? Couple armored and as many infantry.
I don't think anyone ISN'T aware of how tough ReForGer is going to be: the 3rd Battle of the Atlantic is going to be very difficult for NATO.
Oh, is this a surprise scenario? Did the Reds catch us off guard? Or was it a slow creep up in which deteriorating political situations allowed units to be moved into key positions? If it's a surprise, conventional air strikes with cruise missiles on G/I/UK stations may allow the Soviets free reign in the North Atlantic for weeks before the gaps can be plugged.
What about the Far East? What's China doing? Are they hanging back or putting pressure on the US PACFLT and PacRim concerns? If we can move all but a token force out of the far east, one wing to cover Japan with the Japanese, and a token division consisting of two fwd armored brigades and one Infantry back in Korea, that helps.
Assuming the following scenario of:
- no nukes, no chemical, no bio at ANY level (battlefield, theater or strategic)
- slow build-up, both sides are ready to go
- China, Vietnam, Cuba, North Korea sit it out
- Poland tells the USSR to get fucked
...then I think the whole Soviet drive gets about halfway into Germany, gets chopped up, Category B units told that they're fighting the Fascist Oppressors threatening Glorious Mother Russia come forward and see untold acres of air-destroyed T72's and T80's, morale starts to drop, and the whole thing goes to hell.
The Soviet Army arrests whomever signed off on this excursion back at the Politburo, some show trials happen, a few executions, and they sue to withdraw back to Iron Curtain lines and try to keep Poland and possibly Bulgaria and East Germany from murderfucking them, with a possible concession of freeing East Berlin and an entire land corridor (which they can shut at any time, oh and also no civilian towns or individual structures will inhabit) from W. Germany to Berlin, but try to keep the Pact together to save face.
If NATO demands a full surrender and dissolution of the Pact, they'll turn the war machine back on and keep killing until they are literally physically exhausted in men and materiel.
HOWEVER
If they catch NATO at, say, Christmastime, full surprise attack, pants around our ankles, it'll make the Norks driving Ridgeway to the Pusan Perimeter look like turning around to go back and get your wallet halfway to the grocery store. First thing is the Berlin Brigade will be annihilated (maybe even by "irregulars", e.g., spetznaz), they'll push 50 divisions of motor rifle through the Fulda and be a few KM from Brussels in about two weeks, demanding a surrender or they'll drown the city in artillery and airstrikes.
And again, since N/B/C weapons aren't in play, all the west could do is shrug, sign and leave, unless they were willing to sacrifice just about every soldier in the US, UK, Canada, etc. to try and push the now emplaced Soviet divisions out.
If Nuclear weapons are in play, and it's a Red Surprise, they'll soften up with chemical strikes on various bases, nuke hardened sites, the US will respond, and everything's fucked in about 48-72 hours because at that point the strategic birds are flying.
...
Now, briefly:
1950s, Maybe. However we were in full on must defend against the red hordes. The T34/85 and T54 and M47 and M48 were about par (if that matters). I think it's almost a coin toss.
1960s, Probably. US was spread out in SE Asia
1970s, probably. Post-Vietnam the US military was in a shambles. New systems weren't online yet or were in so few quantities that we didn't have enough to make a difference. Carter's sick joke of "Hollow Force" barely made sense on paper and wouldn't have worked in practice. By the time troops were called up and in place to use those stored weapons and flesh out divisions we'd be signing a surrender treaty outside the smoking ruins of DC.
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THIS IS MY SIG, HERE IT IS.
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