Interesting data on the possibilities of non-compliance by the Warsaw Pact allies. Like a lot of people, I suspect, I always wondered how reliable the ordinary Warsaw Pact grunt (as opposed to Officers) would have been, especially if they ever saw the Soviet attack ... derailed.
As for the rest, I am assuming that we are after the initial stages of the war, regardless of whomever attacked first (though I'd assume a Soviet attack was more likely, if not likely overall), and that the staff plans on both sides have proved to be overly optimistic ... so, D+45 or so, I'd guess.
The Sovs haven't won, NATO hasn't lost, but hasn't thrown the Sovs back (or not all the way) and it's settling down for a long war ...
Can the Soviets win such a long war without resorting to use of WMDs?
(I'm assuming the US would regard use of CB weapons on any scale enough to be useful as a trigger for using nukes, as that seems to be long standing US policy).
From what I understand of the Soviet economic and political organisation, I think that the Red Army had a lot in common with the German WW2 army - designed to fight short, sharp, speedily victorious, campaigns. So I suspect they would have, to say the least, serious problems if it became a long term war.
It's just that I am not sure that NATO and the US would be all that much better off in the medium term.
Phil
|