[Olefin]

I don't see the US standing by and letting Venezuela go Marxist in a 1st edition world for sure - but there is a good chance that given the continuing US-Soviet confrontation of the 1st edition that Chavez may have never been let go from prison

In a second edition timeline you could see Chavez being released and forming his political party as happened in our timeline

However in both timelines Venezuela gets nuked in late 1997 as part of the attacks against oil production - after that the country would probably rapidly fall apart into a vicious fight over what was left

given the locations of the refineries and other infrastructure in the country Caracas probably would not be hit by nukes - but you could see that city rapidly fall apart as panic would hit the country after so many of its cities would be hit by nukes going after their refineries

and remember it depends on when the Soviets hit the refineries - were they hit by conventional weapons, Spetsnaz or Soviet supported guerillas before the war went nuclear or after the TDM when it was time to make refineries glow?

About the only one that might still be standing would be the San Roque refinery as it specializes in paraffin production and its production rates are very small