Keep in mind a few things about the Dutch in the Antilles
The Marines aren't based just at Curacao - they are on Aruba as well and do exercises all the time on the other islands
Also most likely they aren't going to sit in their barracks right next to the refinery as they see other refineries go up in nuclear fireballs - so most likely any attack on the refinery is going to hit with them dispersed either to the other islands or to the airfield in the north of the island which is outside any potential nuke radius of what the Russians were using typically to take out refineries
also not every refinery was hit by nukes - as the canon says nuclear or conventional attack - having it taken out earlier in the war by conventional cruise missiles from a sub or a Spetsnaz operation out of Cuba is also a big possibility
I would think that the Dutch and French getting into conflict in 1998 would definitely be part of the war in the Caribbean and could explain why the pirates in 2000 were thinking the ships they were building in Grenada would be so effective - i.e. possibly the French and Dutch naval ships were taken out in fighting between themselves leaving nothing but small patrol craft at most
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