[Rainbow Six]

Nicola said that a second referendum was now 'highly likely'. My reference to when rather than if it took place was purely my personal opinion.

In one sense the SNP leadership know exactly what they are doing - they want to have a second referendum, but only when they think circumstances have changed sufficiently to allow them to win it. They cannot, under any circumstances, risk having a second referendum and losing it. They would have to wait decades before they could call for a third.

However in another sense matters are out of their hands, and that's where they don't know what they're doing. That's because they want to have a referendum when they think they have a chance of winning it, however they also want to have it before the UK formally leaves the EU, which is likely to be up to two years from when the Prime Minister invokes Article 15. Cameron has already said it should be the new PM who invokes Article 15, so because of these factors the timescale is uncertain (and could be further complicated if the other 27 member states attempt to 'fast track' the UK's exit.

Therefore the clock is already ticking on how they deal with the big ticket items, primarily convincing people that we can afford to be independent. Whether they will be able to do that or not remains to be seen, however that's far outwith the scope of this thread, or this board for that matter.