Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
Not to get all alarmist, but Turkey being expelled from or voluntarily leaving NATO might embolden the Russians to attempt some more territorial expansion in the Black Sea littoral. The two nations have already clashed above Syria, and there've been some nervy moments at sea. Since Turkey was/is a NATO country, Russia I'm sure has been hesitant to provoke a direct military confrontation with the Turks. If/when the threat of NATO intervention is gone, all bets are off. This is a worst case scenario, of course, but wars, even world wars, have started over less.
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The Turks shot down a Russian fighter not so long ago that allegedly flew over Turkish airspace, and the umbrella of NATO membership stopped the Russians from retaliating. Turkey is also increasing its political influence across the Middle East in a way not seen since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and there are allegations that Turkey has been turning a blind eye to ISIL smuggling operations and the infiltration of refugees from Syria, and certainly Turkey is where most Islamic fanatics from Europe who want to join ISIL travel to first to reach Syria. Erdogan is playing a dangerous game by provoking a country as powerful as Russia and pushing the tolerance of NATO allies with an Islamic agenda and purges of the pro-Western cadre of the Turkish military. It could end up really bad for Turkey if they get booted out of NATO, as no Middle Eastern power is going to aid it if it gets into a war with the Russians, and the Kurds in the eastern half of Turkey will erupt in rebellion. Also Turkey will be facing a hostile Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Croatia who all hate the Turks, and who will be backed by not just the rest of NATO but probably the Russians, Serbs, Armenians and Georgians who have a bad history with the Turks and Islam. Personally I think I would prefer the Russians in control of the Black Sea and Caucasus, as not to many Islamic fanatics will be happy about trying to travel through this region to terrorise Western countries when they know they have to deal with Cossack militias and Spetsnaz.