[RN7]

Originally Posted by Hal

I'm thinking more along the lines of the Turko-Iranian alliance being more of a thing of convenience where both sides are getting what they want to some degree, but neither really committing fully. Each secretly hoping the other half gets burned by the maneuvering where they agree something should be done. Iran with its nuclear capabilities recently gained, Turkey with its strategic location and Russia perhaps getting its fleet into areas it couldn't in the past. Perhaps Russian surplus ships sold to Iran as part of a cementing move - both with the understanding that in order to maintain any of the surplus ships, the Iranians will have to deal through Russia to get the spare parts and training for maintenance crews.

Even ignoring the Sunni-Shiite sectarian rivalry I thinks its unlikely that Turkey would form an alliance with any other Middle Eastern power due to the fact that Turkey is Ottoman. The Arabs, Iranians, Kurds and other groups in the Middle East still have bad memories of the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish hegemony in this part of the world. Turkey has been kept at arms length by the rest of the Middle East since the Ottoman Empire collapsed after WW1. Turkey would also have to leave (or be expelled) from NATO if started forming alliances with non-NATO countries, and this would have severe economic and military consequences for Turkey.

Originally Posted by Hal

If we presume that the EU starts to experience some difficulties due to fragmentation, we might see not only Greece attempting to exit the Union, but perhaps Ireland or Portugal or perhaps even France. I don't know the local politics enough to say yay or nay on that. But from what I'm reading, it seems that the issue, as ever, revolves around money and political power. Greece is blaming the EU for its woes, all the while refusing to accept an austerity budget. It kinda looks grim there from what I'm reading.

There is some truth to this.

Originally Posted by Hal

I almost wonder if that might be deemed an opportunity for Russia. If they have access to the Mediterranean sea via Turkey AND Greece, NATO would have a hard time containing the break out from the Black Sea.If Russia sends aid to Syria, Iran, and Greece, and works on obtaining Cypress as part of its alliance - NATO might be harder pressed towards containing the Russian Fleet.

Russia would see this as an opportunity, but maybe not in this part of the world for a number of reasons.

1) Turkey and Russia have been enemies for centuries. The Turks shot down a Russian Air Force jet that crossed into their airspace from Syria not so long ago. There is no possibility of these two forming an alliance.

2) Russia is far more friendly with Greece than Turkey. They both share the same Orthodox Christian religion.

3) There are British military bases on Cyprus (also used by the US) which sort of guarantee that the Greeks and Turks behave themselves. The Russians, Greeks and Turks will not want to get into a war with the British who will certainly be backed by the US and others.

4) The Russian Navy is not very powerful, particularly its Black Sea Fleet. The current fleet they are sending from the Arctic to Syria is a flag showing fleet with limited capabilities. The US Navy would make mince meat out of it.

Originally Posted by Hal

Question is - to what end? What is it that Russia wants at this point in time? A fractured NATO would play right into Russia's hands, something that Donald Trump, as President might facilitate. Once that "mistake" is made, perhaps the US might recommit to the welfare of NATO, but by then, it would be a weaker position. If Hillary Clinton is Elected instead, what might the ramifications be? Pay for Play making it such that a sufficient "bribe" might cause the US to withdraw from NATO sufficiently to weaken it (same effect either way the US decides who becomes the next president perhaps? Just different reasons for the same effect?).

I don't think there is any real chance of NATO fracturing in the way you are implying. The Greek-Turkish and Med part of NATO has always been the weak link in NATO, they gain a lot but don't seem to want to contribute much. Its the northern European countries who count.

As for the Donald. Love him or hate him, the guy says crazy things to appeal to certain demographics in the US voting electorate. He could say the moon is made of cheese and little Green Men have taken over the Kremlin and some would believe him.