It was the shock of the nuclear attacks and the effect on the country that made South Africa change. They lost two cities and the riots afterward caused a lot of deaths as people panicked thinking more were coming. They knew the needed unity or they were not going to be able to hold things together - especially if more nuclear attacks occurred. Conventional attack alone wouldn't have done it - I agree with you there - but seeing the destruction in the US and seeing how China fell apart under nuclear attack made them make a choice they would not have made elsewise.
And keep in mind - outside of Kenya and Rwanda and areas under French control they have seen Africa fall completely apart. Facing that reality they know how much of a target they are - and that they can't keep the country safe while
at the same time repressing the majority of the population
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