An unusual idea that would fit the 1.0 timeline (and inspired by news today from Korea) - a Russian unit on the Chinese gets orders to prepare to deploy to Afghanistan, he decides to not risk it and tries to escape to Chinese territory, Russian guards fire at him and the CHinese thinking they are under attack return fire, everything escalates as both sides report up the chain that the other side fired first (they may even believe it...). Poor quality reports (made as an excuse to avoid blame) escalate the incident to the level of the 1960s incidents above.
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