Yeah, all that's basically the way I'm thinking too, but given the poor nature of the only two roads, and the ease in which those roads, plus the sea routes could be interdicted (as little as a couple of men with a machinegun could cause everything to grind to a sudden halt, particularly along that southern land route) there's got to be a REALLY SOLID reason for them to risk it.
Part of it could be Australia's involvement in Korea giving them the impression they'd really only have the PNG defence forces to deal with - roughly a total strength of just 2,500 people spread across all areas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papua_..._Defence_Force
Some Indonesian units will undoubtedly be sent to Australia's mainland for low level insurgency and sabotage (prime targets including oil refineries) which based on Australian military exercises in the 80's and 90's could tie up in excess of a brigade just in hunting them down (perhaps three times that many, or even more, providing security at expected targets).
That may just give the Indonesian offensive some small chance of success, or at least enough that they think it's worth trying...
Quote:
Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic
As for the crude oil bit, yeah, just shows how little I know about it haha  |
Don't worry, a week ago I didn't know all that much either! This has been a VERY steep learning curve!