That depends on a number of factors - wind direction and strength at time of detonation, ground or air burst, warhead yield, and location of the blast just to name a few.
In my T2K world, the canal gets nuked. Not irreparable, certainly not destroyed, but rendered impassible to unshielded vessels for a few years at least. Taking it out of commission accomplishes more than a dozen other infrastructure nuke strikes elsewhere by forcing vessels to go all the way around South America burning much more fuel, taking potentially a month or more longer than through the canal, all the while exposed to possible enemy submarines and surface raiders. Sure, convoys would (and should) be used, but we're talking in excess of an additional 10,000 miles or more and there are only so many warships available for escort duty.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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