Originally Posted by Ursus Maior
While all of this is true, it would still be like shooting fish in a barrel. A BBBG was also not necessarily meant to go somewhere and complete a mission all on its own. The Balitc Sea is a tiny pond with its 377,000 kmē, bordering NATO countries Germany and Denmark (plus almost Norway), neutral countries like Poland, Sweden and Finland as well as the Baltic States plus the USSR in this timeline. It's a crowded place with nowhere to hide, absolutely no depth (the average is 55 m, but it actually only gets reliably below 50 m, once you approach the Polish coast. Once you get there, you're in Soviet hunting grounds, Warsaw Pact or not: that's well within Soviet missiles strike distances plus optimal territory for SSKs like the (improved) Kilo and not to speak of mines.
If you go in there, you do it full force, together with your allies Germany and Denmark, who specializes in mine-warfare, small submarines, ASW and AAW. Also, attacking Sweden is dumb, because that's not only a natural ally, but also the only way to go to maneuver. Essentially, attacking Sweden allows the USSR to close its pincers on any NATO force.
If the US wants to respond by sending a sizeable naval force within striking distance of Soviet territory, it should send a Carrier Strike Group and a Expeditionary strike group into Norwegian waters and work together with Denmark and Germany to "secure sea lines of communication in the Baltic Sea" by sending a Ticonderoga class CG plus an Arleigh Burke-class DDG and 3-4 frigates under constant air-cover and supported by allied SSKs. A Tico is a juicy target, but far from the same as a CVN or BB.
My question is again: What's the strategic goal here? Apparently the carrier strike group is only sent into the Baltic Sea to duke it out with the Soviet fleet at Kaliningrad. That's not a strategy, it's a death sentence. In 1996 (actual history) the Russian Baltic Fleet numbered nine submarines, three cruisers, two destroyers, 18 frigates and 56 small vessels. But the defensive power of the fleet lay in the coast and its hinterland with its airfields, missile bases and of course long-range bombers available.
Assaulting Kaliningrad with a single CSG would amount to assaulting a cannon-spiked fortress with a host of light cavalry and a single catapult. The CSG has no amphibious element to deploy, cannot mount enough strikes to destroy all relevant targets and cannot endure the swarms of missiles it would have to face. Even if the CSG manages to level said fortress with a nuclear struke, what good does that do? It escalates the war immediately to its final phase, since the USN would just have attacked Soviet (even: Russian) soil with nukes.
If the ultimate goal is supporting the air strikes in Poland by attacking Soviet forces in or around Kaliningrad, that's a job for stealth bombers, which could be based in Norway or even Denmark. The B-2 went operational on January 1st 1997, the historical combat debut was 1999 during the Kosovo War. For T2K, June 1997 would be an ideal date, the USSR wouldn't know what hit it, especially if you mask the attack with a second deep-strike by B-52 launching cruise missiles and the better known stealth attack craft F-117. The latter were likely already known to Soviet SIGINT since 1991, so "seeing" their signatures pop up in a diversionary raid on targets in central Poland at the same time as B-52 launch AGM-86 ALCM cruise missiles from afar, would draw all the attention away from B-2s. Tip off the Swedish that the B-52s would fly close to their airspace and you could even get away with B-2s overflying their mainland, while all radars are trimmed to watch the main show to the South.
Once that triple-strike is over, you assess the situation in order to figure out, if the Soviet threat has diminished enough for a CSG to enter the bathtub. But again, that needs a plan to follow. The Baltic Sea is not only carrier-unfriendly, it also has no need for a carrier, since every target is so close by anybody's airfields, you can just get up in the morning, drive to work, board your bomber and be home by noon. That's far better than sleeping in rancid cots and having to jump from a burning wreck into the water before breakfast, because hundreds of dancing vampires proved to outmatch your defense.
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