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Originally Posted by Raellus
What if a faction in the Bundeswehr launched a false-flag op to create the illusion of a DDR attack on West Germany?
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It doesn't solve the basic problems of such a premise at all. Let me remind you of the premise again:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
If that's still too far-fetched, what if the anti-communist DDR military faction decided to launch an attack on West Germany, to give the Bundeswehr a pretext to counter? This attack, of course, would be mostly for show, but it would provide a justification for a punitive Bundeswehr drive into East Germany which would then prompt a coup by the NVA. West Germany would have its fait accompli, and NATO would have a reason to intervene (Article 9 of the charter).
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- Starting a shooting war is likely to set off a nuclear war and Germany would be the epicentre. If you have any love for your live, your family and/or your country, you keep the peace at (almost) all costs. Nuclear war will devestate most of Europe, large parts of North America and the USSR. No one wins in this game, unless you don't play. This not debatable, since it - by design - is a key concept of T2K as well as popular knowledge at the time.
- Both, West and East German military and political leadership is closely observed and guided by their respective hegemonial powers. Both German states and their militaries are so confined in their alliances that larger plans involving one's own military or talking to the other side will be impossible. Especially between members of both security aparatuses, i. e. high-ranking officers, members of the intelligence communities, relatives by blood or marriage etc. While low-ranking soldiers or officers could probably grab a few rifles and start shooting across the border, they couldn't pass it. Also, no-one would start a war over a lieutenant and a couple of guys going all murder hobo.
- Anyone who tries that in the East, will fail and face the severest punishment. The GDR by then hadn't executed anyone since the early 80s, but torture and labor camp were still on the menu.
- If you're politically unreliable, you don't get to be in the army, let alone in a position of power. That's a given for both German armies. However, being in the East German NVA puts you under direct and often intense scrutiny of the Stasi (the intelligence service of the GDR): 96 percent of all officers are members of the ruling Socialist party (the SED). The remaining 4 percent are members of one of the other allowed parties (so called bloc parties). None of these four percent of none SED-officers make it beyond the rank of major. While there was a nationalistic party that had been specifically founded (by Stalin) for East Germany to have a party that could harbor former NSDAP members and Wehrmacht officers, the party didn't play a huge roll for the armed forces. As mentioned, almost all officers were SED members and each and everyone was constantly vetted by the Stasi.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
As a bit of an aside, how do you German T2k'ers handle the beginning of the Twilight War?
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Not exactly sure yet. But it needs to be quick and ugly as I think premeditated plans are unlikely to work and very risky to be uncovered. Additionally, as mentioned above, I don't think anyone would plan an incident like that in the 80s or 90s for feat of annihilating most of humanity. China, for me, has to be a factor as explained elsewhere.
I'm going to use a modification of the new 4th edition. Probably, it'll revolve around the Third Taiwan Strait crisis and the USSR reclaiming its former member states in the Baltics, as well as Armenia, Moldavia etc. I still need to come with an idea, why proper war would break out in/over/against Poland or along a wider front. I could see the USSR attack Poland over people of Russian descent, in a similar spiel as in the Baltics. With Poland aspiring NATO-membership, a hardliner government in Moscow might try to pull a fast one on Poland, before it's to late.
Also, in our history, Polish government and civilian agencies helped Chechen separatists quite openly. That could go wrong quickly with a resurgent USSR in 1997. Maybe pro-Chechen-independence protests happen at the same time as a joint maneuver by forces of NATO and Poland. A combination of several of these factors might do the trick. The Czech Republic and Slovakia just get to be in the way, much like Belgium was in 1914. Romania and the USSR might clash over Transnistria in Moldavia, drawing the two in an unwanted war just prior to the Polish incident. The Bulgarian government was historically in the 90s constantly undermined by Russia, so similar things could happen in a timeline featuring the USSR, with the latter actively trying to destabilize the country and make it a satellite state through installing its own government choice. Hungary suffers a similar fate with both nations descending into civil war, Soviet occupation and hostilities with neighbours, until parts of NATO's Southern members (Italy, Turkey, Greece, maybe Spain and Portugal, too) try to stabilize the greater Balkan area, as the second wave of the Yugoslavian breakup (Kosovo) begins.
I've not yet written it down. We'll see.