Quote:
Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b
Taiwan -- well, as one earlier poster said, China will mop the floor with Taiwan after a tough fight that is ultimately lost. After that, it will be a matter of whether China can KEEP Taiwan.
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China could devastate Taiwan right now if it wanted to. Invading and pacifying Taiwan is probably within China's capabilities right now too, but the buildup of forces couldn't be hidden and would invite intervention by the US and its allies. Every year that goes by though, China's ability to mount a large-scale amphibious invasion will improve.
Thing is though, it comes down to what China's priorities are with Taiwan. If the primary priority is gaining Taiwan's industrial base, smashing it to bits in the process of conquering it kind of defeats the purpose. If the primary priority is ideological/making a point, then all bets are off.
We in the western world talk up a good game about human rights and military aggression and all that, but the proof, as they say, is in the pudding. We will invade and intervene and violate human rights when it suits us, it just comes down to how well the media story can be massaged and how much criticism we're prepared to take internationally. Given that reality, and what massive hypocrites many of our countries have been, trying to lean on China not to invade Taiwan on a moral basis is farcical. So, just like the US and other powerful nations, China won't make its decisions on Taiwan based on moral imperatives (and morally they think conquering Taiwan is righteous anyway). All they'll care about is cost-benefit, and how much international pushback they'll have to manage.