You make some really good points, Chalk. I don't disagree that the west has been playing a dangerous game for far longer than the PRC, and that the west has been applying a double-standard to China when it comes to violations human rights and/or international law.
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Originally Posted by ChalkLine
Inexplicably the entire West have decided to convert themselves to 'service economies', in essence middlemen, when the obvious fact is sooner or later middlemen get cut out was ignored in the face of big fat profits. Worse, they shifted that manufacturing to a potentially hostile power and assumed they could keep it in check through military threats. It was a losing 'diplomatic' assumption and we're paying for it now.
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It's not inexplicable. It's the natural result of free market capitalism. Manufacturing shifted from the west to China because of lower labor costs in the latter. Similarly, China could charge less for its steel and heavy machinery because it spends less on labor. That trend began in the 1970s. Western corporations could/still can reap higher profits because they could/still can spend less on labor in China. We are seeing the geopolitical, as well as economic, consequences of that short-sighted, single-minded approach to business.
That said, labor costs are rising in China. It's going to be difficult to keep "winning" at heavy industry long-term, without artificially suppressing wages for their industrial workers. Doing so could lead to serious social unrest. Manufacturing is already much more dispersed in the developing world now than it was 20 years ago because other countries allow their factory workers to be paid even less. Today, China is being undercut by El Salvador and Bangladesh, the same way China undercut the West for most of the last four decades.
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Originally Posted by ChalkLine
So what do I think the flashpoints will be?
Well, none in that article although obviously we should prepare for them. The flashpoints will probably be the same dangers of the Cold War; some hawk bungling an action what he thinks the other side will tolerate and sparking a peer to peer war.
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I agree that a war sparked by clashes over the Senkaku Islands in E. China Sea (v Japan) is highly unlikely, ATM. That said, flashpoints in the S. China Sea have already seen threats and use of force in recent times.
China has clashed with Filipino fishermen and naval forces on multiple occasions over the past five years or so.
PRC intrusions in Taiwan airspace have increased dramatically as of late.
Articles about recent Chinese saber-ratting re Taiwan:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nse-zone-today
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...sest-to-taiwan
Yesterday, I read an article claiming that many Chinese are stocking up on essentials because they believe that recent government encouragement to do so indicates that a war with Taiwan is forthcoming.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/econo...hnk/index.html
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