[Raellus]

After giving this some more thought (and inspired by the arrival of my copy of the v4 boxed set), here's what I've come up with:


Northern Front, Winter 1996 - Autumn 1997

By the closing weeks of 1996, the Baltic Sea is essentially a Soviet Lake. Pact Naval forces have been able to sweep the Baltic of NATO naval forces. Only NATO air forces limit PACT freedom of navigation in the Baltic.

To avoid same, Pact naval vessels and aircraft routinely enter Swedish territorial waters. Stockholm protests vociferously via diplomatic channels, to no avail. Incidents occur, shot are exchanged, the PACT gets the worst of it. Tension builds, but Stockholm refuses to order full mobilization of its military forces in order to avoid further provocation.

By Spring 1997, most Soviet Forces have been pushed out of Northern Norway (isolated pockets left behind continue to resist, as best they can). NATO attempts to advance on Murmansk through northern Finland. Finland strongly asserts its neutrality by attacking the NATO spearhead, stopping it cold. Remnants of the Soviet North Sea Fleet destroy a NATO flotilla closing on the Kola Peninsula but suffer crippling losses in turn. Despite its use of force against NATO forces in the north of the country, Finland refuses to ally with the PACT.

Facilitated by tactical nuclear strikes, a summer 1997 land offensive in Poland pushes NATO forces back towards the German border, increasing Pact control of the Baltic by making it more difficult for NATO air forces to operate in the anti-ship/anti-sub capacity there.

Stymied in the far north, the PACT makes a fateful decision to attempt killing two birds with one stone. An invasion of Sweden aimed at capturing Stockholm would knock a troublesome not-really-neutral nation out of the war and allow the Soviets to outflank NATO units holding firm in northern Norway, and/or present a clear and present danger to Oslo.

Mustering its remaining naval and air assets in the region, the PACT launches a large-scale amphibious and airborne invasion- the last of its kind in WWIII- of SE Sweden, preceded by precision nuclear strikes (mostly aimed at destroying the Swedish air force and navy). PACT naval infantry and parachute units land near Stockholm, establishing a beachhead and pushing towards the capital. Reinforcements soon follow (by sea, of course). The Swedish government appeals to NATO for help.

NATO is surprised by this unexpected development, but the alliance immediately susses out the strategic threat to Norway. Preparations for a counterinvasion of Sweden begin.

Meanwhile, the Swedish army rallies and puts up fierce resistance to the Pact advance, buying time for outside assistance to arrive.

---

This timeline pretty much sets up the military situation in Sweden, described by v4, while aligning, more or less, with the v1 timeline (still my favorite). Some ORBAT adjustments are, of course, necessary, but I don't think this would "break" how v1 describes the correlation of forces in other regions.

-