[Raellus]

Originally Posted by mpipes

The problem that looms large; the background FL came up with and the ability of the Soviets to mount an operation into Sweden with a three-front war to contend with strains credibility a bit too far.

I don't disagree with you there. My interest, however, is trying to work out a way to make Sweden a campaign setting in v1. This takes a bit of mental gymnastics, for sure. Basically, I'm trying to make lemonade out of lemons, or smash a square peg into a round hole.

Originally Posted by mpipes

That said, you have some naval infantry and independent regiments that you can throw in to occupy a strip of the Baltic shore and secure an airfield or two to protect shipping lanes from the USSR to the Polish or other Baltic seaports. Airbases enhance your hand in supporting the German front and intercepting airstrikes from German or Danish bases towards Norway or Kola. Occupying Gotland and Kalmar is about all I see the Soviets realistically having the forces to accomplish.

I agree with your strategic assessment. That view, however, doesn't lend itself to Sweden serving as a campaign setting, though, so I'm trying to come up with a plausible reason for a larger-scale invasion. To sum up, that would be:

• Present a threat of outflanking NATO forces in N. Norway.
• Relieve pressure on the Central European front by drawing off NATO forces from Poland.
• Secure freedom of navigation of the Baltic by eliminating the Swedish navy and air force.
• Rescue pockets of Soviet troops cut off in N. Norway and/or interned in Sweden.

Originally Posted by mpipes

OK, you can have them trying to capture or actually capturing and holding on to the southern part of the country. Capturing Stockholm does not make any sense to me, but ok every country does dumb things in a war. You can expect the Swedes to fight like hell for it and getting into it is hard and mounting a follow up operation out of it is even harder, and where do you go from there? What are your military goals in the wider context of a NATO war? Probably you just hunker down while Swedish commandos make occupation duty less than boring.

Most Swedes live in and/or around Stockholm, so the Soviets might see it's capture as a campaign-ending stroke, much like how during WW2 the Germans believed that capturing Moscow would end the war with the USSR.

Originally Posted by mpipes

Sweden did not see a need to join NATO for a reason; there was really no credible threat of a Russian invasion.

I think that most Swedes that lived through the Cold War would disagree with you there. Sweden made extensive preparations to resist a Soviet invasion: a few examples are universal conscription, hardened CINC bunkers and sub pens, coastal artillery batteries, dispersed combat aviation assets (STOL fighters designed to operate from highways). They wouldn't have invested in those sorts of things if they didn't take the Soviet threat very seriously.

Originally Posted by mpipes

The real problem for the Soviets was the Baltic, and Sweden was not a solution. They could not get the Baltic Fleet into the Atlantic without having to get through restricted Danish and German waters. Stirring up the Swedes would only complicate that task. The Swedes were far from dumb, and knew quite well that the Soviets would want to avoid yet another country hunting Soviet ships in the Baltic. After all, there is a REASON that Sweden was heavily invested in minelayers and small coastal subs....very, very good coastal sub.

You are right, of course, but in my scenario, the Soviets' primary strategic objective in invading Sweden is not to gain access to the N. Atlantic via the Baltic.

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