[Raellus]

Yet another Alternate Timeline of the Twilight War

I haven't worked this all out yet, but basically, I'm going with a timeline where the Cold War seems about to end with peaceful German reunification. The Soviet military, with a long institutional memory, can't abide a reunified Germany- at least, not without a buffer state between the two traditional enemies. So, c. 1990, it launches a coup, takes control of the Soviet government, and then cracks down hard in Poland to maintain control there*. Of course, the international community protests vociferously, but aside from some sanctions, doesn't do anything about it.

*I haven't yet worked out which Soviet satellite countries manage to leave the East Bloc, which stay "voluntarily", and which the Soviets essentially occupy.

The Gulf War happens. The West draws the wrong conclusion from their easy victory: Western tech is essentially invincible. This belief leads to cuts in defense spending across NATO. The Soviets also learn lessons from the Gulf War. For starters, these lessons lead to improvements in training and a professionalization of the NCO corps in the Red Army, as well as developing tech to counteract US stealth aircraft.

Meanwhile, Germany is struggling under the economic burden of the moribund East. Mandated privatization leads to massive demonstrations in the former DDR. The Soviets look amp up the destabilization by supporting Communist terrorists. Political assassinations and bombings are fairly common. Germany simply can't afford its Cold War military, and, despite the Soviet bully next door in Poland, has no choice but to cut defense spending and focus on integrating the national economy.

What about the Soviet economy? Wasn't it on the verge of collapse? Yes, but the new hard line government institutes China-like economic liberalization while completely doing away with Glasnost era “freedoms”. The new government keeps the economy afloat thanks to plentiful supplies of natural gas, which it exports (not all countries participate in the post-Poland crackdown economic sanctions)- especially to a rapidly modernizing PRC. The Soviets also sell off some of their older military gear at bargain basement prices in order to improve their more modern stuff. The Soviet economy continues to sputter along.

What about the various Soviet republics? A few essentially declare independence and demand that Soviet troops leave their sovereign territory. Moscow ignores those demands and orders the arrests of the loudest dissenters. Fighting breaks out in the Caucuses, but the Soviet military somewhat clumsily, yet ultimately effectively, crushes armed opposition. More operational lessons are learned by the Soviet military.

When dissent flares up in the USSR's Baltic republics, the crackdown gets particularly ugly in Lithuania. Despite Soviet attempts to suppress reports of bloodshed, news of the repression reaches the west. Alarmed by the increased Soviet military presence next door, Finland and Sweden gravitate more closely to NATO. A couple of small-scale joint military maneuvers augur bigger things to come. When a well-placed Soviet spy in Stockholm reveals high level Swedish gov't discussions re a formal appeal to join NATO, Moscow decides that a larger, stronger NATO presence directly abutting the Motherland is existential threat to the USSR, and detailed plans to invade still officially neutral Finland and Sweden are developed (basic outlines had existed for decades). This is in 1995.

Meanwhile, relations between the USSR and the PRC rapidly sour. There's a dispute about Chinese payments for Soviet natural gas or Soviet cheating or something like that. I haven't quite worked this out, but military posturing near, or a "terrorist" attack on, the pipeline between the countries leads to border clashes in late '95, which, due to nationalistic pride or whatever, continue into early '96. With the eyes of the world on the crisis, neither gov't will back down.

At this point, the Soviets figure the time is ripe to launch their surprise attack on Finland and Sweden. With the world's attention on the border clashes in the Far East, and maybe some crisis in the Middle East somewhere, Soviet preparations are overlooked.

Summer '96, the Soviets launch their attack, starting with Spetsnaz actions, massive airstrikes, and a barrage of conventionally-armed cruise missiles targeting the air and naval forces of Sweden and Finland. Huge fighter sweeps follow. The Scandinavian air and naval forces put up a valiant but futile fight and, despite inflicting heavier than expected losses on their Soviet counterparts, are quickly subdued. Launched from the Baltics and Kaliningrad Oblast, large-scale amphibious and parachute landings take place in SE Sweden, while the Red Army rolls across the border into central and northern Finland in what is planned to be a massive double-envelopment of the latter country. Polish naval infantry and paratroopers seize Gotland.

NATO is taken aback. Norway and Denmark are in a panic. Sweden and Finland request immediate military assistance. NATO debates direct military intervention, but instead decides to mobilize its forces in central Europe, and reinforce Norway. It's hope for the best (either Sweden and Finland pull off a miracle, or the Soviets voluntarily end their offensive and pull out); prepare for the worst (Soviet forces end up in Norway) approach.
Meanwhile, a nationalistic, sanguine PRC gov't decides that the time is right to teach the USSR a lesson and cross the border in force.

Again, I'm not sure exactly what triggers a wider war between NATO and the Soviets in Europe, but it would kick off in '96. Things get out of control... yada-yada... tactical nukes are employed... TDM...

More or less, Twilight 2000.

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