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Old 02-01-2022, 06:47 AM
Ursus Maior Ursus Maior is offline
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Location: Ruhr Area, Germany
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I don't see this going off the table either, but their would be diplomatic upheavals visible at least. Imagine a close(-ish) ally of one of two opponents getting surprised by its allied state going to war on a "business partner" it wants something really badly from. China would be in a less than optimal position all the while the UK is gearing up for war. No one wants to escalate, but only 15 years earlier, the UK sailed half across the world and beat the Argentinians on a commodity far less valuable than Hong Kong.

The UK might actually work together with the US to push China into the right direction over this, which is away from the USSR. All sides would want that by then, but China might feel that "just doing the right thing" isn't easy to communicate internally. So, they happily (though grudgingly inward) agree to break the alliance with the USSR over getting back Hong Kong. Of course, that's not what everyone tells the press or the Soviets. Officially, Hong Kong is just resolved as was planned, but below that is the layer of Chinese-Western trust-building over the Hong Kong-Soviet matter. Everyone gets what they want, except the USSR.
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