Quote:
Originally Posted by unipus
What's missing, I think, is a demonstration of power from the Soviet Union that could convince others that they're the winning side.
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Rolling the Baltic States demonstrates to Europe- Eastern Europe, in particular- that the Soviet Union has the means and the will to use military force to back its policy goals. Frankly, I think this should happen earlier in the timeline.
Also, in the 4e timeline, Soviet natural gas might be nearly as important to Europe as Russian gas is today, giving the USSR a bit of economic leverage there (as evidenced by current real-world fears that a strong NATO response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine would prompt Russia to close its pipeline to the west, resulting in civilians deaths due to cold during winter).
As for India and Pakistan, I don't think clear-cut alignment with one or another of the Superpowers is necessary for achieving the desired end. In fact, I think the Superpowers- in particular, the Soviets- are not going to be able to focus their diplomatic efforts
everywhere, with equal efficacy. The Soviets are going to be focused on Europe, China is going to be focused on Taiwan, and the USA is going to be focused on Europe and Taiwan. Add in a volatile Middle East, and the Superpowers are going to be spread very thin. In other words, the Superpowers, preoccupied with other flashpoints closer to home (or more vital to their national interests) essentially leave South Asia up to its own devices. (Perhaps China steps in later, once war breaks out, to help one side or the other, but mostly to pursue its own ends). That neglect essentially leads to a war where curated diplomacy might have saved the day.
So, border and ethno-religious tensions boil up between India and Pakistan, not directly related to what's going on elsewhere in the world, and the Superpowers (USA, USSR, PRC) don't step in with a diplomatic solution. A shooting war between India and Pakistan ensues. It's not directly related to the rest of World War III, but it becomes a part of the global conflict nonetheless. And, of course, it goes nuclear...
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