[Heffe]

Estonia

[First up we have the nation of Estonia, care of user 'Andres' from the 4e discord. In the canon timeline, not much at all is mentioned about the Baltic nations, beyond them briefly claiming independence before being swallowed back up by the resurgent USSR. ]

1991
On 21 August 1991 soviet paratroopers try to take charge of Tallinn's TV tower, the television broadcast is cut, but a handful of Estonian Defense League members barricade the entry into signal rooms, the radio signal remains strong. The standoff continues for three days, but the soviet forces are finally told to stand down.
Talks on withdrawing the remaining 35,000 soviet troops stationed across Estonia begin. The first agreement set a deadline of 31. August 1994, but a few conditions that were drafted in a hurry and under pressure cause enough ambiguity for the Soviets to step back on several promises later on.

1992
Most Soviet troops as well as heavy equipment are withdrawn from Estonia throughout the year. Several military installations maintain a token force to prevent local military forces from using the bases. Corruption during the withdrawal is rampant and many weapons and pieces of equipment are sold to the black market as well as to the Estonian armed forces.
Estonia buys Romanian produced AK pattern rifles to arm it’s newly refounded Defense Forces. Orders are also placed to receive weapons and ammo from China.

1993
Israel is one of the few countries that has no issues with selling firearms to Estonia above board. Estonia decides to move forward with the deal regardless of the high 60 million dollar price tag, Israel agrees on a longer term payment plan which suits the young nation. The payments are expected to last 8 years while the weapons will be shipped in three. 12,000 Galil assault rifles as well as AA cannons, mortars, AT weapons and radio equipment help set a foundation for the growing armed forces.

1994
While most of the Soviet forces have left the country as per the agreement, there are still several installations that are occupied by foreign forces. The Estonian government as well as the population grow tired of the prolonged withdrawal. Many protests are held and diplomatic notes are sent to the Kremlin regarding the delays, but being dependent on Soviet whims both militarily and economically, there is no real leverage.
Through the cover of private businesses trying to jump on the real estate train, the Estonian government starts several construction projects to create defensive lines and strongpoints on the eastern border. The Kremlin takes note and demands an explanation, accusing the “warmongering fascists” of trying to start another war. The Estonian government explains that they hold no control over what private contractors choose to do. Tensions on both sides are high.
From 1994 onwards there are regular protests by the Russian minority that were brought into the country during the Soviet occupation, as well as attacks on the still remaining Soviet military installations. Estonian intelligence traces all of these events back to KGB, clearly trying to raise internal tensions between the ethnic Estonians and Russians as well as trying to spark larger conflicts to capitalize on.

1995
The Soviet Navy nuclear submarine training center in Paldiski is supposed to be handed over by 30. September 1995. The Soviet Union steps back on this promise citing troubles with dismantling the nuclear training reactors as a reason. Around 8,000 Soviet personnel remain in Paldiski and a few other military locations across Estonia.
Everyone feels the tensions rise as the withdrawal of the Soviet forces is postponed time and time again. Estonia invests more and more into it’s Defense Forces.
Estonian armed forces take part in UNPROFOR in Croatia, hoping to soon join NATO.

1996
Having worked hard over a few years to fabricate countless false-flag incidents, the Soviet Union finally invades the Baltics. The Baltics were one of the most economically viable regions of the Soviet Union, provided access to the Baltic sea and gave them a connection to the Kaliningrad oblast. The separation of the Baltic states was also a hit against the Soviet pride, time had come to reclaim this area that Russia has seen as part of their empire for some time now. On 9. May 1996 the invasion begins.
Having vowed not to hand their country over to an aggressor like in 1940, the Defense Forces, that had been on high alert for some time, put up a fierce resistance. Only willpower alone does not win wars unfortunately, the Estonian Defense Forces are soon overwhelmed by the numerically superior enemy force and are forced into retreat. In a week Soviet forces reach Tallinn and announce Estonia to be reintegrated into the Soviet Union by the will of the people. Much of North-Eastern Estonia along with Võru in the south are bombed into oblivion during this first phase of the invasion. In another few weeks Western Estonia and the islands are back under Soviet occupation. Fake referendums are held where some 99% of the population support the Soviet Rule.
The few weeks the Defense Forces held out were not in vain. Just as nearly 60 years before many flee across the Baltic Sea to Sweden and Finland, mostly civilians but also politicians in the hopes of forming a government in exile and military personnel that hope to help fight the Soviets in the uniform of a friendly country. Others stay behind and withdraw into the vast forests and swamps of the country, waging guerilla warfare against Soviet supply lines.
Just as NKVD before them, the KGB cracks down on all prominent politicians, officials, patriots and nationalists. Those that are not outright executed are deported to Siberia. Many, expecting history to repeat itself, had already either fled abroad, into the woods or put up fierce resistance with the help of the guerilla fighters. In total several thousand are killed and around 20,000 deported.

1997
At some point during 97, US special forces units are sent into Estonia as well as the other Baltic states to help the local forces fight the Soviet occupation. As the spearhead of Soviet forces are tied up at the front elsewhere, mostly reserve units are left behind to force the Soviet rule. While lacking in morale and training, they still field armored units that prove difficult to counter as most of Estonian anti-tank capability was lost during the first weeks of the invasion.
Weapons shipments from NATO smuggled into the area allow the remnants of Estonian Defense Force to rearm themselves and orchestrate attacks on Soviet armored units. Soviet units stationed in the area, under the leadership of KGB, form death squads that carry out massacres among the civilian population in response to the increased guerilla activity. This only adds fuel to the fire, resulting in full scale armed uprising in several smaller settlements in Western and Southern Estonia, whole soviet garrisons are massacred, the partisans do not manage to hold this ground however. The fighting continues, but the intensity of it dies down on both sides as autumn approaches. The KGB led massacres largely end after the reports of Estonian response reach the Kremlin.
Local Russian diaspora feel betrayed by the Soviet union. The soviets largely see them as traitors that chose to stay behind because they were too good to return to their homeland, Estonians still remember being treated as second class citizens by the local Russians. Some try to evacuate to their relatives in Russia as the fighting continues.

1998
As more and more Soviet units are diverted to the front, the occupying forces adopt a general strategy of staying in major population centers and refraining from any punitive actions against the civilian population. The guerilla forces keep attacking supply lines, but lack the man- and firepower to attack major cities.
Tallinn suffers from major bombing raids aimed against the occupying forces, but causing widespread destruction in the city. Civil order starts to break down as the authorities are unable to keep fires under control. Many evacuate to more rural areas.
There are talks about a planned commando raid against the Paldiski facilities, but those become irrelevant after the site is nuked. The last survivors of the surrounding areas and Tallinn flee Northern Estonia, leaving behind ruins and only a handful of stubborn stragglers that refuse to leave their homes.
Estonian forces are finally starting to seize control of some smaller settlements as it becomes apparent the Soviets have no more reinforcements to send. Tartu that managed to survive the nuclear exchange and much of the bombing becomes the major Soviet stronghold in Southern Estonia. In the north Soviet forces regroup and secure Rakvere and Tapa. According to intercepted communications, these forces have been ordered to dig in in order to prevent a NATO amphibious assault into Russia through Estonia. There are remnants of Soviet forces still maintaining control of the western coast of Estonia, but the actual situation is unclear.

1999
There are reports of US Marine units having landed on the largest Estonian islands of Saaremaa and Hiiumaa. The Soviet forces holding the line in Eastern Estonia have dug in even further, exploiting the surrounding civilian population for supplies. The situation elsewhere is confusing at best, one village might be harboring guerilla fighters while the next is under the control of Soviet troops. The Estonian forces have largely re-integrated back into smaller settlements as the Soviets no longer hunt them and are mostly just interested in holding their ground. Otepää becomes the center for the resistance movement, most everything is coordinated from there by the remaining high command with the help of the US special forces.

2000
In preparation of the Operation Reset the US special forces in Estonia manage to organize several weapons and ammunition shipments with the intent of letting the Estonians clear out the Soviet forces on the mainland, so the regrouped Marine units from Sweden could finally strike at Russia.