China
[Next up, of great concern, is a general picture of eastern Asia in the 4e timeline. Thinking about the world powers, there's no way we can even start to talk about Asia and the far east without talking about China. FL, IMO, has done everyone a great disservice by not including even a blip in the official canon timeline about what's happening in that region, so I decided to dig in and start studying Chinese politics in the 80s and 90s, hoping to figure out a way to get China to make sense in this alternate history. Based upon feedback from users here and on the discord, and the impossibility of the USSR taking on the entire world in the 4e timeline, for better or worse I've decided to have China join the USSR on the RedFor side of the war. In this timeline, the Party backslides into communism after the successful Gang of Eight coup.]
1989
The world recoils in horror at the Tiananmen Square Protests and Massacre. Diplomatic relations suddenly become strained around the world nearly overnight as word spreads, and sanctions soon follow. Not long afterward, China's paramount leader Deng Xiaoping steps down, but still holds vast influence of the ruling leaders of the CCP, and continues to push the countries leaders toward a policy of reformation. He is succeeded by former Shanghai Mayor Jiang Zemin. In the political background, leftist conservative and "economic guru" Chen Yun works to bring the Party back toward a more centrally planned economy and what he sees as communist ideals. He secretly views Deng's rightist views on the economy as a pathway toward the west and away from communism, and works to build a coalition of support in the Party's Central Committee.
April 1990
Li Peng, the Premier of the Chinese State, visits Moscow, where he's denounced by dozens of protestors as a butcher. He lays a wreath on Lenin's tomb, as a symbol of China's continued faith in the core tenets of communism.
1991
China watches the Gulf War and comes to a stark realisation - the PLA was an oversized, almost-obsolete force. When the Gang of Eight coup succeeds in August, Chinese Communist Party officials quietly celebrate, and see the coup as renewing faith in communism in Asia. Chen's supporters gain more support, and gain control of the Poliburo; they follow this by challenging Jiang's leadership. They immediately send diplomats to meet with new Russian president Yanayev's administration officials, which leads to closer ties between the Party factions in both nations. Further, the Chinese leadership maintained that the Russian coup attempt had almost fallen apart due to an inability to keep the Soviet army in line with Marxist-Leninist ideas. As a result, political education and Marxist–Leninist propaganda in the PLA is stepped up heavily.
Relations with the US throughout the year continue to sour, as the US Congress in particular is eager to impose additional economic sanctions and cancellation of trade. President George HW Bush also manages to antagonize Beijing by agreeing to meet with the exiled Dalai Lama in April. China views Washington with suspicion, and alleges the US is waging a systemic campaign to undermine confidence in the Chinese State Party. The US pushes back, accusing China of supplying arms to it's enemies in the Middle East.
1992
Following sanctions from much of the world, trade with Russia resumes in earnest, with Russia agreeing to sell oil, arms, and other goods in an economic cooperation agreement. CCP officials following Yun's lead begin a renewed campaign of spreading literature and lauding the success of Russian communists over what was seen as encroaching capitalist forces. In spring, Deng Xiaoping suddenly re-emerges in public and embarks on a tour of southern China to restore faith in his reforms and stop the country's slide back into Maoism. This leads to an official sanction by Party hardliners at the 14th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. In December, Deng is reported to suffer a massive heart attack by media in the west, though there is speculation about the true cause of his death. Party hardliners leverage the opportunity to push back hard against reformation, and begin cracking down more heavily on pro-reformation officials in the National, Provincial, and Local Congress. Political leadership "rains red" in China, and soon Jiang is forced to step down, with Chen Yun officially being nominated as the new General Secretary of the Party.
1993
Continued crackdowns take place throughout the Party on reformist groups. Yun does so mostly without bloodshed, and leftward progress is slow. China (Chairman Yun) establishes the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) as part of an official national military strategy to modernize the Chinese armed forces. Facing down increasing inflation and civil unrest, along with the problems caused by urbanization and stagnating rural income, the CCP starts pumping more men and equipment into the military. Relations further improve with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea based upon mutual needs. Trade continues to grow with Russia, and now with North Korea as well.
1994
In April, Yun dies suddenly as the result of an unspecified illness. A renewed sense of nationalism and pride in Chinese communism spreads throughout China as drastically increased trade with Russia sparks rapid growth in the economy. Party hardliner and relative newcomer to the Central Committee, Han Ju, is elected to General Secretary of the Party. As a sign of the strength of trade, China enters into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, along with the states of the USSR, further cementing their commitment to communist ideals. The Party continues a strict policy of information control, and where Chen was hesitant to use bloodshed to purge reformists, Han is not. State forces are encouraged to use lethal means to put down anti-communist sentiment, and the People's Armed Police Force (PAP) is used to strike down remaining reformists groups in numerous cities along the coast, often with growing body counts.
Meanwhile, relations with the US degrade further. With communism once again in the ascendant in China, the US adds additional sanctions, with Clinton publicly stating that he "has questions" about the reported deaths of first Deng, and now Chen, while denouncing the government's increasing use of force to put down dissidents.
In response, Party hardliners develop a plan to unseat Hong Kong and Macau democratic leadership, and hope to bring about an end to western involvement in the region.
1995
China executes their plan and launches a covert campaign to subvert the governments of Hong Kong and Macau, and replaces them with loyal partymembers. This leads to a series of escalating violence in both cities, with citizens taking to the streets to denounce China's heavy-handed approach. As the violence grows and the local police add to the resistance, the Central Military Commission again sends in the PLA, who quickly bring an end to the violence through what comes to be known as the Night of the Sickle, or Hong Kong Massacre. Hundreds of rioters are openly murdered by Chinese soldiers. Chinese government officials claim the incident was an accident and that things simply got out of hand, but western suspicion has reached a boiling point, and leaders start openly denouncing Han's government. The UK, under growing pressure in Europe and effectively powerless to intercede, decides to let Hong Kong go. Most western trade in the region grinds to a halt.
1996
Chinese Party leadership laud Russia's decision to strike swiftly and bring the rebellious Baltic nations back into its fold. That act emboldens the now majority hardliners that think the same needs to be done with Taiwan, the islands in Fujian, and a portion of northern India that China claims to be part of it's Xizang province (Tibet). Shortly after, China sends a large naval detachment to Taiwan, making demands that they submit to PRC rule. Republic of China officials, not wanting an all out war that they cannot win, do their best to stall for time. Border skirmishes and limited military clashes begin with forces in Vietnam.
August 1997
Empowered by recent actions made by the USSR and the US's meek response to the situation in the Baltic, North Korea prepares to, and then attacks South Korea, fully expecting the US to ignore the action due to the engagement in Europe. This has far reaching consequences. First, the DPRK pushes hard with rocket artillery strikes dense enough to darken the sky, aimed at Seoul and South Korean forces across the border. This is followed by an intense ground campaign that pushes the South Korean defenses to the breaking point, along with around 35,000 US military servicepeople. US forces waste no time in their response. Pacific Carrier Groups Five and Seven, representing the USS Independence and the USS Nimitz, quickly assist South Korea in fighting back. Citing the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, China sends air power launched from Northern China, followed by ground troops, quickly overwhelming South Korean defenders. The world stands in horror as the second Korean War begins directly along side the clashing of ground troops in Poland.
Early 1998
The war for the Korean Peninsula initially goes well for China and the DPRK. The sheer volume of soldiers filtering in-country from the north puts extreme pressure on the remaining defenders, backing them into the Busan pocket. Soon, Russian-made Chinese Sukhoi Su-27s are battling it out in air duels with Falcons and Hornets over the sea of Japan. The Chinese modernization efforts combined with better training and imports from Russia are paying dividends. It's not long before another US carrier group joins the fray, with reinforcements being shuttled in from US bases in Japan. Japan until this point has done it's best to keep a low profile, pretending that the war won't come to their shores, but when Chinese bombers attempt a direct strike on Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, Japan has no choice but to act. Japan's air force joins battle, and BluFor gains air superiority in the area. Fearing a complete collapse in the east, the USSR sends the Red Banner Fleet taskforce carriers Minsk and Novorossiysk to engage the US Navy.
Facing a renewed push against it's eastern borders from US and Japanese Naval and air elements, and a new southern front opening with the nations of ASEAN, China watches in earnest as the first tactical nukes get used by Russia on the western front. China soons follows suit, striking its own targets at the remaining defenders in South Korea, and hostile air and naval bases in Japan. They pre-emptively hit the seat of Taiwan's government, as well as other US strategic bases in the region, such as Clark AFB and Subic Bay Naval Base in the Philippines. As the Russian nuclear missiles begin landing in the US, US strategic missiles too begin hitting deep in both the USSR and China. The Chinese economy breaks almost immediately, with massive unrest unleashing all over the country as China's people come face to face with the prospect of nuclear annihilation. The USSR's nuclear missiles contribute further damage to US allies and enemies foes all across east and southeast Asia.
1999
With the war against the US, Japan, and North Korea now at a standstill due to nuclear shock and a sudden lack of naval and air assets, China focuses it's remaining aggression on targets within reach - the ASEAN nations to its south. Columns of Chinese infantry and tanks pour into Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. The fighting quickly fades as logistical support ceases to exist on both sides, and entire divisions get swallowed into the jungles. At home in mainland China, what's left of the Chinese government devolves into what more closely resembles the Warlord era of the early 20th century. With a third of the population dead or dying, and another third on the brink, local and provincial congresses, or what's left of them, break from their neighbors. Remaining Party members sometimes maintain a power base large enough to maintain control of various towns and villages, and sometimes they're hunted down by the local populace as being heralds of nuclear armageddon. The larger cities near the coast empty as the people starve and move toward more rural areas. Inland cities such as Chongquing fair little better. The central planning system envisioned by Mao, and later by Chen and Han disintigrates in spectacular fashion. China, as a cohesive state, effectively ceases to exist.
2000
In the spring of 2000, more than half of China's population is gone. The once proud nation lies in utter ruin. There's no longer any cohesive form of government, and local populaces must rely on themselves entirely for food and energy production. Warlords in the south dream of expanding their empires into neighboring ASEAN nations, who also lie in ruin. Areas in the north are dominated by the remains of military divisions, now in cantonment around whatever civilization remains. To the west, once subjugated minorities, largely spared the worst of the fighting, cry out for freedom even as they starve and look to secure their own new borders against external encroachment.
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