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Originally Posted by Benjamin
I totally agree that with a continuing Cold War no leftist government would be allowed in Mexico.
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Mexico's ruling government during most of the last century, the PRI, was a really a broad coalition of many different political philosophies including many center-left groups.
I think this is where the French come in to play. If Mexico was leaning towards a sort of Western European socialism- like what the French had going on in the '80s and '90s- especially if it was openly supported/encouraged by the French, the U.S. would probably accept it. They wouldn't be too happy about it, but a moderate center-left government, retaining strong ties to the U.S. and the West, wouldn't be seen as too much of a threat. It may actually be seen pragmatically as somewhat of a buffer or mediating force between the right-leaning U.S. (of the '80s and early '90s) and the more leftist, Soviet-influenced countries of the rest of Latin America.
This also sets up the French as a major player in the region prior to the war starting and would help justify a massive French arms deal for the Mexicans, making them stronger and the successful (at least initially) invasion of the southern U.S. more plausible.