Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
The Times carried an article on the above subjects on Friday
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...ions-t7k2vsgc5
I'm not sure if you'll be able to view it as I think it's behind a paywall (I have a subscription and checking without logging in would suggest you can't but it may be different outside the UK). Options mentioned in the article were
1. Detonate a nuclear weapon over the Black Sea as a demonstration of intent and see what happens
2. Intensified conventional attacks on major population centres, e.g. Kyiv
3. Blow up the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant
4. Tactical nuclear attack on Ukrainian armed forces |
The problem with rattling a nuclear saber is it's only scary once unless you actually use a nuke. After nothing happened after Putin's nuclear talk back in February I think it's apparent he has no intention of ever using nukes.
- Putin has a decent enough lock on power within Russia. Even if Russia pulled out of Ukraine tomorrow the internal spin would just say "Mission Accomplishski" and the majority inside Russia would cheer.
- People outside of Russia don't care about Russia. Russia only is concerning to some ex-Soviet satellites that are now backed up by NATO. Russia won't invade them. Russia is also ruined economically and militarily for decades now. Putin will be gone before they're able to threaten anyone again.
- The US likely has a pretty good handle on Russia's nuclear arsenal and isn't worried about them using it. Like the rest of Russian equipment it's been rotting since the 90s. Hydrogen bombs need constant maintenance (tritium expires) lest they become just low yield fission bombs.
- Putin nuking anyone runs a very real risk one of several nuclear armed powers says "screw it" and drops a ground burst on whatever dacha he spends the most time at. The rest of the world would probably give that country a mulligan and a sternly worded letter of thanks.