[Homer]

For what it’s worth, the TOW-2A has a quoted hit probability of 90% out to its maximum range of 3750m. That said the missile is in the air for about 20 seconds during that time, and the shooter must continue to track and be exposed to fires and observation. That’s before any evasive maneuvers, jammers, etc are employed. And the wires not fouling on vegetation, wreckage, or buildings, poles, etc. That means the 6 TOW rounds in the back of an M966 (10 on an ITV) give you between 4 and 5 hits, with target kill probability being determined from there. In about 15-20 minutes of contact in a target rich environment, inclusive of repositioning (if you’re still alive), you’ve probably expended your onboard rounds.

All that math is to show that most ATGM units don’t carry a lot of potential kills onboard relative to tanks and they’ll go quickly. Thus, the demand for missile rounds at the sharp end is going to probably be high throughout the war, with most units wanting to carry or cache at least another basic load for rapid replenishment. And, for APC, motorized or light units, the heavy ATGMs will see heavier use due to the relative lack of other long range armor anti armor weapons like tank main guns or auto cannon.

The TOW, HOT, AT-5 etc will doubtless do their jobs well. But they’ll also be in high demand because of that capability.