Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
Although I'm very happy for the UAF, I am doubtful that they can seize a sizeable bridgehead on the east bank. The Russians have spent the past few weeks digging in there, and any crossing attempt would be pounded by Russian artillery. This may be the high water mark of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region. Still...
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The Ukrainians of course are already on the Eastern side of the Dnipro, since Russia never took the North of Zaporizhia oblast (including Zaporizhia itself) or indeed the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Hence, the Ukrainian forces are now in the comfortable position to either shift their forces in Kherson to Donbas or cross the Dnipro at Kherson, which is risky, because it's a wide river and the enemy is entrenched. However the enemy is also on the run and his forces consist mainly of untrained and inexperienced mobilized men.
A third option would be, to move through Zaporizhia oblast and cut into Melitopol in the South, where partisans have been fighting the Russians for months now. This would cut of southern Kherson and Crimea from Donbas and Southern Russia (Rostov-on-Don). Since the Kerch bridge will likely be down for month to come, that would necessitate to supply Crimea by sea, which likely means that support in any meaningful way is out of the question.
Personally, I think that the Ukrainians will want to pressure the Russians on as many fronts as possible at the same time, keeping them guessing on what happens next. If the Russians don't rally their troops soon in southern Kherson, their entrenchments will be useless and the Ukrainians can cross the river to establish a bridge head either at Nova Kakhovka or across from Nikopol.
Either way, the Russians are screwed and have been for a long time now. But the Kremlin has no way out. Basically, I think the Kremlin power circles will keep throwing their male population under the bus for as long as the current power structure remains in place.
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