Broadly, I agree with your assessment, Heffe. I do, however, think it really depends on how long Putin is willing to fight this war. Russia has a significantly larger pool of fighting age men. Even if the Ukrainians produce 3 casualties for every 1 sustained, they'll run out of soldiers first. Can Russian gov't, econ., and society hold out long enough for that to happen? Probably not, but the possibility can't be discounted.
This piece does a pretty good job of analyzing demographic trends in relation to the war.
https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-demog...aine-vs-russia
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