Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffe
All good points. Regarding Soledar, my understanding is that Wagner is essentially throwing bodies at the town in the interest of proving that Wagner is superior than the MOD. With vehicle kill counts on the Russian side being somewhat stagnant, that means Russian infantry losses have been absolutely atrocious. To your point though, maybe they really can absorb such tremendous losses. At least for now.
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It's almost certain that Russia sustained heavier losses during the battle, possibly
much heavier. Against dug-in positions, especially in MOUT, the defender usually has the advantage and the attacker usually sustains more casualties. I'm worried that Russia can sustain heavier casualty rates longer than Ukraine can. I just hope Russian willpower runs out before their manpower, armor, and ammo do.
Wagner had always been build as an elite PMC. Apparently, now they are employing large numbers of ex-Cons, many recently released specifically for the war.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffe
Belarus is a really interesting scenario. You have to know Luka is looking at NATO's military build up on his border, and he doesn't have the nukes to scare NATO off, despite his closeness to Russia. NATO's calculus is going to be "Can we take out Belarus without triggering Russia's nukes?" It'll be a really dangerous game if Belarus ends up sending troops across the border. The Belarussian people as well, from what I understand, aren't quite as interested in the war as Russia's, and they're arguably more eager to see Luka be ousted.
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Luka doesn't need nukes. Belarus is under the Russian nuclear umbrella. I may be overstating this a bit, but Luka is essentially a Russian puppet. If Putin orders him to jump, I don't see him saying no. In fact, I'm kind of surprised Belarus hasn't joined the invasion. Surely, Ukraine's "gay nazi demons" are a threat to Belarus as well.
Early in the war, Luka went on record as saying that Belarus would not participate, despite allowing Russian land and air forces basing and transit rights. Then there was the infamous "map slip", so maybe there was a plan to do so at some point.
In early summer, reports emerged indicating that Belarus was surreptitiously giving some of its T-72 tanks to Russia, to make up for heavy Russian losses.
Since at least autumn, Russia has been shifting forces to Belarus, despite simultaneously losing ground in Ukraine. Russia claimed it was just to conduct joint maneuvers with the Belarussians. AFAIK, those RF forces are still there, and reports indicating they're continuing to be reinforced. Some analysts believe this is to pressure Ukraine to maintain significant forces in the Kiev area, to defend the capital from potential second lunge at Kiev. I'm not so sure.
Do you think NATO will strike at Belarus if it joins the invasion of Ukraine? I don't.
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