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Originally Posted by Raellus
I get the sense that this is the case. Prigozhin seems to have gotten a big head and Putin's patience seems to have run out. Frankly, given some of Prigozhin's recent boasting re Wagners successes, whilst simulatenously loudly denigrating the regular army, it's a bit curious that it's taken this long for Putin to try bringing him to heel. I think that messing with Wagner's ammo is the way that Putin is doing that.
I really don't get Wagner any more. Their use by the Kremlin made sense in Syria and Africa, where plausible deniability was useful, but in Ukraine, it seems counter-productive. Prigozhin's private fiefdom reminds me a bit of Himler's early Waffen SS. I'm really surprised that Putin allows someone with such a big personality to amass that much hard power. I don't see any reason why the Russian army can't also empty the prisons for cannon fodder. I imagine it would be cheaper than paying Wagner to do it.
Given that most of Putin's vocal critics or troublesome allies have ended up dead or in prison, I'm kind of surprised Prigozhin is still alive.
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I've also been pretty surprised at Putin's delay in reining Prigozhin in. From him him openly courting Russian milbloggers to talking shit about Russian regular forces, it makes me think that Putin still needs him for some reason. Or perhaps he has something/knows something that Putin needs/needs to not get out - which, given his past with the Internet Research Agency, wouldn't be super surprising. This is all speculation, of course.
As far as Wagner is concerned, I do wonder if there's still some domestic benefit to them being separated from the MOD in an official capacity. I mean clearly everyone knows that they're a part of Russian forces, but perhaps there's a legal component there. My understanding is that it's illegal for the Russian military to actually conscript from prisons, so perhaps Wagner has just evolved as a constitutional loophole to allow for an extralegal arm of the military.