With respect to Russia and Wagner, it really seems like Putin wants to use them as a no-lose scapegoat. If Wagner performs well it'll be played up and Putin will be hailed by his media apparatus as genius for using them. If they fail then they'll get written off and stiffed on the bill and probably turn out the whole war was their idea in the first place and they bamboozled poor Putin.
Also, as I understand it (I'm no Russiaologist) there's very much two Russias, the predominantly Slavic and wealthiest hubs of Moscow and St Petersburg and pretty much the rest of the country. When most of us think "Russia" we're thinking of the former. As long as the general zeitgeist of the war in those areas is positive then to the Russian government the population's view of the war is positive as nowhere else matters.
The use of Wagner helps insulate Russian urbanites from even seeing the war. The Russian government can ignore laws around conscription and deployment by using Wagner as a buffer. They can also assign contract soldiers from urban regions to ditch digging in Belarus or the rear in Donbas so when they go back home they tell everyone the war is not so bad and international news is exaggerating if not lying about what's happening in Ukraine.
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