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Originally Posted by Vespers War
I wonder if Taiwan isn't more useful to China, or at least some factions within China, as a semi-external threat than it would be as a fully integrated territory with high levels of unrest.
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That's an interesting point; there's something to that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vespers War
While China has land border disputes that justify spending on the PLA, Taiwan's presence as (from the PRC's perspective) a breakaway province justifies spending on the PLAN in different areas than the potential threat from the United States. There's much less need for landing ships and amphibious warfare equipment if Taiwan's not a potential target, but making it an actual target would remove the utility of those forces.
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One thing that the First World War taught us is that with the construction of a massive conventional military with all kinds of cool toys- especially, in this case, ones optimized for conducting a large scale amphibious/airborne invasion- comes the temptation to use that force. Taiwan presents a far more tempting/realistic target than say, the Philippines, or one of China's continental neighbors. As the military continues to grow in size and complexity, there's a danger of the tail wagging the dog.
By the same token, Taiwan will never pose a serious military threat* to the PRC, therefore the latter's military spending can't be justified by the former alone. As long as the USA maintains a strong military presence in Asia and the Pacific, China has a convenient bogey man to justify its own continued military expansion.
Another way that the PRC might use Taiwan is as a convenient distractor/rallying point if and when the PRC's citizens grow restive for other reasons. It's a classic play used by authoritarian states. An example would be the Argentinian junta's invasion of the Malvinas... er, Falkland Islands, in 1982.
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Originally Posted by Vespers War
An invasion also runs the same threat of weakening Chinese soft power that Russia's running into with reactions to its invasion of Ukraine. Once you start playing hardball and invading other nations, it's harder to convince countries where you have major projects that you won't do the same thing to them if they get cold feet in the future. I don't have a great grasp on how China figures its strategic calculus, but in my view they have more to lose on the global scale than they would gain from invading Taiwan, regardless of the outcome of the invasion.
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That's true, but China has a lot more soft power than 21st century Russia ever had. Given how economic sanctions haven't had the desired effect on Russia, it's hard to see why a much more economically powerful China should fear them.
*Barring the acquisition of nuclear weapons, which is highly unlikely.
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