This guy knows more than all of us here so I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss his assessment.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-n...M0BhoDZFyvnOHI
Here's a taste:
Q:
"Last year, you told me, at a very early stage of the war, that Ukraine was winning on Twitter but that Russia was winning on the battlefield. A lot has happened since then, but is that still the case?"
A: "Unfortunately. Let’s think of a house. Let’s say that you own a house and it has ten rooms. And let’s say that I barge in and take two of those rooms away, and I wreck those rooms. And, from those two rooms, I’m wrecking your other eight rooms and you’re trying to beat me back. You’re trying to evict me from the two rooms. You push out a little corner, you push out another corner, maybe. But I’m still there and I’m still wrecking. And the thing is, you need your house. That’s where you live. It’s your house and you don’t have another. Me, I’ve got another house, and my other house has a thousand rooms. And, so, if I wreck your house, are you winning or am I winning?"
It's not all doom and gloom, but the expert does throw cold water on the idea of Ukraine achieving its stated victory conditions. The whole article is definitely worth a read- it's definitely the best macro assessment of the war that I've seen to date.
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