Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
Bakhmut
What do you think is going on there?
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I think Ukraine is buying time. Time to train units, time to receive Western equipment, and time for
rasputitsa to end so that they can engage in maneuver warfare. A lot of the Ukrainian losses at Bakhmut are second-tier units, the TDFs and light infantry that are useful fighting on defense from prepared positions but can't attack a kitten successfully. It sucks to be them, but the longer they hold out, the more Ukraine's offensive units can refit and train for an attack once the mud dries up.
Tangentially, piecing together numbers from Oryx and making some estimates based on proportions of known losses and differences between Oryx's visually confirmed losses and UA's estimated losses, Russia has lost somewhere around half of its modern tanks, defining modern as the T-72B3, T-72B3M, T-80BVM, and T-90M (the four models with the enlarged autoloader that allows use of Svinets-2 rounds). Russia still has a lot of tanks, but their tank forces are weaker now than at the start of the war. Because of shortages of imported thermal imager components, tanks are receiving thermal sights that are roughly equivalent to what the US had in Desert Storm. Allegedly even elite units like 1st Guards Tank Army are including T-62 tanks in their formations, which is slightly eyebrow-raising.