Bakhmut
You're right that no one beyond arguably Ukrainian high command and NATO/US military advisors have any idea what's really going on here. I did read recently (I forget where) that estimates are putting Russian losses in the area at 1:5-7 in favor of Ukraine, and that a going theory was that Ukraine is simply willing to trade favorably against Russian forces to bleed Russia down a bit until western assets arrive in theater. I have no idea whether that casualty estimate is accurate or not, and I certainly won't believe Ukrainian or Russian estimates on the matter, but if true it might help explain the thought processes involved.
The optimist in me hopes that Ukraine is planning to let Russia advance on the flanks and then cut them off/encircle their forward elements with Ukraine's reserves. The pessimist is convinced that Ukraine just doesn't have that many forces still available and will be forced to start pulling back due to overwhelming numbers of Russian forces despite their training and technological advantages.
The only things we know for sure are that Bakhmut is a meatgrinder for at least the Russian forces - we know that because Russia has been throwing attacks at the city since August at least, with shelling of it beginning back in May. The fact that the Russian army hasn't been able to take Bakhmut in nearly 7 months despite throwing huge numbers of men and equipment at the city indicates that Russia is having a very difficult time gaining any real ground in Ukraine. Especially when paired with what happened at Vuhledar. We know that Ukraine has now left the eastern part of the city, but it seems to have been an orderly withdrawal, and Ukrainian forces are keeping a corridor open to the west. Whether that indicates that Ukraine will continue hold the western part of the city, or counterattack, is anybody's guess. The fact that there's a risk of encirclement and Ukraine hasn't pulled out yet indicates that Ukrainian leadership is either making a mistake by holding the destroyed town at all costs, or that they're smart and know something we don't. So far in the war, Ukraine's been very effective in their decision making, while Russia has been flailing all over the place, so that gives me some hope that Bakhmut is no exception and that there's some kind of plan.
Aircraft
I will happily eat crow here, but I don't think the west is going to be sending F16s to Ukraine anytime soon. At least not the US. It would represent quite a heavy escalation of forces, and could lead to further escalation on Russia's side. Not only, but as others have mentioned, the prospect of getting planes, parts, maintenance crew, and pilots trained, is likely going to take a year or more. Even if the process starts now, we're looking at a 2024 rollout. While it's certainly possible the war could go on that long, the runway to implementation feels too long, so to speak.
|