I'll carve out the possibility that the dam very well may have collapsed on its own, but the circumstances do seem highly suspect.
First, Russia has damaged the dam previously about six months back with mines, which means they're more than capable of something like this. Secondly, Russia allegedly turned off the flow recently which caused the reservoir to fill quite a bit. And third, the fact that this happened right as the counteroffensive gets underway...
They certainly seem to have both motive and opportunity here.
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