Originally Posted by Homer
My window is not earlier than December 1996, since both parties would want to avoid turning the draft on before the November 1996 election. I’ve taken a lot of threads from Chico’s history, some pop culture, as well as cannon to build a timeline of selective service; my apologies if anything is amiss or I have failed to give credit where it’s due.
The initial DoD request for a draft following the first hostilities in Germany and elsewhere during October 1996 is not supported by POTUS, who hopes to keep the US clear of the war. As a sop, DoD does get consent to lower enlistment standards and expand waiver authority to increase the eligible volunteer population. Nevertheless, the selective service system is quietly directed to begin preparations to be ready to deliver inductees by January of 1997 following receipt of a general notice in June as the war in China spiraled.
In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea. Decriers are quick to point out that the new draft squarely targets young adults who aren’t able find a way out. Red Night, a popular alternative rock band, releases a hit protest single “Vacation” in response. More concretely, Vietnam Era draft resister groups start to re-emerge and offer passage to Canada or other sanctuaries.
The draft debate becomes more public and widespread through December and early January as it becomes clear that the war will only get costlier following the battles in East Germany, Norway, at sea, and the initiation of hostilities in Korea. POTUS seeks to expand the draft, under advisement from SECDEF, JCS and the intelligence community that the war will only continue to spread and escalate. While friendly legislators draft the bill, the measure fails a motion to proceed to the floor for a vote. Instead DoD is given a supplemental appropriation in early February to be used to support expansion of the recruiting force, MEPS infrastructure and manning, and enlistment bonuses to help compete with the burgeoning wartime economy. The language of the New National Defense Act is also quietly amended to allow its draftees to be deployed overseas.
By early March, the continued bloodletting in Norway, the buildup to operation Advent Crown, the buildup in the Middle East and the meatgrinder combat in Korea are taking their toll on personnel replacements. Following a series of briefs to the HASC and the SASC throughout March, the debate is reopened in the draft. Staunch opposition in the legislature and among the public continues, but the success of operations in East Germany and favorable news in the war at sea serve to quiet fears of a “forever war” as the narrative begins to shift to “liberation” from communism. A stand-alone measure to expand the draft provisions of the “New National Defense Act” to allow a draft of 20-25 year olds (without deferment) and medical professionals narrowly passes in early April, and this “Patriot Act” is ceremonially signed into law on April 19, 1997, the 222d anniversary of the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Pundits across the nation comment on the irony of the anniversary juxtaposed with the ongoing unrest in Boston following fuel shortages. Announcements of the new measure are met with protests on college campuses and among health care workers, while the rest of the nation accepts it as one more step on an already long and bloody road.
The first inductions under the Patriot Act occur in May of 1997. While there are instances of resistance, unlike in previous drafts there is no haven to flee to due to the global situation (Canada started returning US draft dodgers in April) and limited sympathy from (drafted) medical professionals for those seeking to be found unfit. The call-ups of national guard and reserve units and their involvement in combat have brought the war home across America and lessened sympathy for would-be draft dodgers as well as draft-resistance groups. In one incident New York State Troopers at the Buffalo MEPs are forced to intervene when a group of students and activists including Red Night’s lead singer Billy Roe Weakhand are attacked by a group of supporters and family members from Buffalo area National Guard and Reserve units. Ironically, Mr. Weakhand would soon find himself the recipient of a draft notice, leading him to enlist in the US Air Force as a fuels specialist, reporting to March AFB in October of 1997.
One unforeseen consequence of the draft and additional expenditures on recruiting is an increase in voluntary enlistments as bonuses and the prospect of having some control in their future service attract young men (and some women). The months between the passage of the New National Defense Act and the first Patriot Act inductions sees the investment in recruiting infrastructure more than justified as enlistees swell the training base. This is especially true when factories begin to give preference to older workers who won’t be liable to the draft.
The invasion of Alaska serves as a catalyst for further expansion of the draft. Panicked by the sudden advance of Soviet forces in addition to reverses and casualties on other fronts, a request to amend the Patriot Act to include ages 18-25 and previously excepted groups including eligible aliens, select clergy, and dual citizens is rapidly approved by a legislature fixated on the threat of Soviet troops on US soil. The amendment passes on 17 June, and is announced the same day along with news of further reverses in Alaska, a brutal battle over a monastery in an unpronounceable city in Poland, and what looks to be a disastrous offensive in North Norway. The new induction measures are set to go into effect on 1 July, but DoD is successful in having implementation pushed back until 1 August to prepare the already stretched training base for a new surge of draftees.
The panic accompanying the initiation of tactical nuclear warfare in July and the subsequent mass exodus disrupts the flow of draft notices and shipment of draftees. Postal employees and draft board officials join with others in making plans to flee the specter of nuclear war, while buses and trains are packed with panicked city dwellers fleeing the megatons they fear are inbound. This causes a hiccup in the intake process; plans are made to accelerate training until things are back on track by compressing certain blocks and exploiting the summer weather to lengthen the training day. Guidance is given to continue to process and ship enlisted and draftees from MEPS to training bases and let the services solve the problem once the trainees are there. The newly inaugurated Operation Certain Delivery directs local commanders to use available national guard and reserve troops to secure dedicated trains and buses for transportation. This leads to a near riot at the 30th Street Station in Philadelphia, when a crowd attempting to board an AMTRAK “Certain Delivery” train confronts an outnumbered USNR guard force from the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The guard force commander, a recalled former F-14 pilot, is on the verge of suffering a nervous breakdown and ordering his sailors to fire a volley over the crowd when AMTRAK and a quick thinking prior USMC Philadelphia Police officer intervene.
By 1 September, the induction and training machine is functioning smoothly. All services report that they are at or near full capacity and able to, for now, keep up with manpower demands from the fronts. Despite the disruption of tactical nuclear warfare, and the worldwide scope of the conflict, the selective service system is doing its part to meet the tasks it was warned to execute just over a year before. As conscription becomes the new normal, discussion turns to other that could benefit from the expertise built by the selective service system. The first question put to the selective service system is how to resolve the issue of those not suitable for service. For the SSS this also means ensuring the survival of a bureaucracy which has grown in size and influence over the past year. With input from the SSS, Congress authorizes a 30 day National Workplace Study, directing the SSS to determine how they could assist in mobilizing additional workers during periods of national emergency from those not suitable for military service. The second question put to the SSS by an unusual coalition of far right and far left lawmakers was how to expand selective service to include women. This would be much thornier, but for the SSS, it meant a potentially more substantial increase in structure and budget. The Women’s Selective Service Study was also authorized for 30 days. Both studies were delivered to congress by the SSS on 1 October, just in time for a scheduled recess. Meanwhile, the selective service system continued to run.
Committee actions on the proposed National Workplace Act and Women’s Wartime Equality amendment to the Selective Service Act began in early October, and draft legislation was introduced just before the Thanksgiving recess. The continuing nuclear exchanges in Europe had become a fixture, and it seemed like once again America would be the Arsenal of Democracy, sending forces to fight around the world while remaining more or less untouched. The war news continued, some good, some bad. As the draft continued, opposition lessened, replaced with a grim resignation. Unlike the Vietnam Era draft, the sweeping eligibility of the current draft met with widespread acceptance as it was generally (unless you were swept up) perceived to be fair. As the war ground on, volunteers continued to outnumber draftees, with many draftees ending up in jobs in support echelons while many volunteers gravitated towards combat or combat support jobs. On the home front industry was near full capacity, with many plants working three shifts six days a week and workers coming home to tired to spend their swollen pay packets or to worry too much about a war occurring far away from home.
The strategic exchanges of November-December 1997 mark the end of the new normal and the end of the SSS until the recovery era. The strike on DC and the subsequent chaos gutted the National Headquarters while the data center and 2 of the 3 Region Headquarters were destroyed by Soviet strikes or civil disorder. Without computerized records or much of its functioning infrastructure, the rump of the SSS proves barely capable of continuing to administer itself, much less preside over continuing draft lotteries. The post strike period sees the SSS relocation team, under the former Deputy Director, operating from a relocation site in the Federal Arc, delegate many of its functions to state managers. They too are overwhelmed, and soon, the local draft board again rises to prominence.
When President Munson signs FEP-D in 1997, part of the packet of papers he signs into law are a draft of the NWA and WWE as well an order granting SSS the power to establish local draft boards in the event of national emergency (the redundancy of this is seen as an example of the fragmented nature of post attack America).
The SSS split along with the rest of the US Government; the Colorado Regional Headquarters eventually aligning with MILGOV and the reconstituted National Headquarters remained with CIVGOV. However, they both continued to perform the function of manpower mobilizer to whatever degree they could, wielding their authorities under FEP-D, NWA, and WWE either directly or through local boards to get the willing or unwilling troops and labor in the dark years of the Twilight War.
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