I figure stop loss/stop move would have been increasingly implemented during early 96 as the China war escalated and reserve component units were mobilized and if necessary federalized.
Politically, ordering a mobilization was a big deal at that time, as was federalizing the guard at large scale. Since it’s an election year, there would be a push to be seen as taking matching actions with federal forces, possibly as part of a “tough on Soviet Aggression” platform.
The economic disruption caused by waves of call-up would be offset in part by the rapidly increasing volume of defense production orders from China, Allies, and the DoD. The incumbent campaign would probably seek to highlight increasing economic growth AND the “successful” containment of the war to China (the CT ops in Saudi Arabia can be conducted well below the radar) all the way up until the Bundeswehr crosses the IGB.
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