Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
The news from Ukraine over the past couple of weeks hasn't been great. Yes, there's been vague, tantalizing mentions of a supposed breakthrough at some point in the Russian main defense line, but those headlines have been outnumbered by those lamenting the size of Russian minefields, and their continuing effectiveness in slowing (or even stopping) Ukrainian offensive ops.
A couple of recent articles have claimed that the abridged Western-style training of Ukrainian forces was ineffective- that it was rushed, and didn't give the trainees enough time to absorb and internalize NATO tactics so that they could be implemented effectively. Additional articles have suggested that the UAF is giving up on NATO tactics and making up their own, essentially embracing slower paced attritional warfare. I don't have much confidence in the UAF achieving its stated victory goals if the fighting continues to skew towards attritional warfare. Regardless of any potential long-term outcome, the war looks like it will continue to drag on for some time. That, I believe, favors Russia more than the Ukraine. Will the West maintain the political will, and the popular support that it would require, to support Ukraine if the war drags on thru 2024 (not incidentally, a general election year in the USA)?
My biggest concern ATM, however, is Ukraine's use of drone warfare against targets of questionable military value inside Russian territory. I understand why it is important, strategically and diplomatically, for Ukraine to show Putin and the Russian people that the war is upon them, and not insulated within Ukraine. However, I think the cost of inflicting Russian civilian casualties could tug Zelensky down from the moral high ground he's occupied since February 2022, and reduce foreign support for the UAF (especially in the form of much needed combat aircraft and additional long-range strike weapons). Russian civilian casualties would also reinforce Putin's whole "we launched this 'special military op' to in self-defense against NATO-backed Ukrainian aggression" line that he's been shoveling since ordering the invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022.
Slava Ukraini!
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I think most people realize that Ukraine can't really win a war of attrition with Russia long term, all other things being equal.
And in a realpolitik sense, Western leaders probably don't want a decisive Ukraine victory that destabilizes Russia and sees someone more unhinged than Putin taking over. Nor do they want a greater Russia that has a stranglehold on most of the world's wheat exports either, so they are trying to traverse the knife edge of keeping Ukraine in the fight and bleeding Russia but not so fast that Russia collapses and loses control of some of their nukes.
Interesting time to be alive.