[Homer]

Yep- normally I’d say you’d want to avoid any city by summer of 98, but Tucson is a geographic/demographic/and infrastructure target that’s hard to unwrap from its populated core.

The Tucson population center as an objective only makes sense because it is (1) squarely astride the I10-I19 junction (no bypass), controlling the high speed routes east and north from the border; (2) joins the FERROMEX rail freight line terminus in Nogales, Mexico to the Union Pacific at the Tucson UP yard via a UP branch line that more or less parallels I-19, its on the east side of Tucson but well within the city; (3) contains electrical power generation (gas), defense (Raytheon Missiles division), Biotech/Medicine development and manufacture in both the Oro Valley startups and in Tucson proper, Smelting/mining support in the Oro Valley area (processing ores extracted from further south or locally) industries which can provide materials and potentially whatever finished products are seized; (4) the city has two large military/civilian airfields, Davis-Monthan AFB and Tucson IAP, with 10k+ ft runways and each capable of hosting a fighter wing (Tucson IAP was actually used as an F-16 training base by the RNLAF from the late 80s/early 90s until 2022 and hosted a squadron of Dutch F-16s) Neither are in the city proper, but utilizing them will require controlling a perimeter in the built up areas of south Tucson and east Tucson to deny direct fire attacks; (5) demographically, Tucson (37% Hispanic in 2000 and rising, above Arizona average and with regular cross border linkages common before OTL 2001) has the potential to be neutral/neutral-supportive to the Mexican force if they comport themselves well. That’s a lot of potentially supportive civilians and/or replacements. In addition, Tucson sits astride the I-19/I-10 settlement corridor which forms one of the two major Hispanic population concentrations in the state along with Yuma, both of which are of primarily Mexican-Americans.

I’ve gotten to spend a little time in Tucson, and it seems like the city just grew around the key infrastructure, etc. So, it’d be hard to seize any of that stuff without getting into at least a little bit of the city. Also, the city has grown to dominate the mobility corridors in the area. Getting north virtually requires you to control the city itself, since it sits like a plug between Mount Lemmon and the Tucson Mountains. You could bypass west, dragging your logistics through the desert, but that just gets you into a fight through the gap between the Roskruge and the Tucsons, with the Santa Cruz river channel providing a natural anti-tank obstacle before you reach I-10 at Marana.

If there is a defense/attack in Tucson, a lot of it will be decided around Green Valley/Sahuarita, since the decision to go through or attempt bypass will likely occur here because the terrain opens up. The defender has excellent lateral mobility in Tucson proper using the I-10 system to rapidly move forces, and the advantage of fighting in an urban area with good LOCs to the “rear” (such as it is), but they likely don’t have the forces to fight against multiple axes of advance, so early identification of enemy intent in a security zone centered on Green Valley will be key. The Mexican Army will retain the advantage of a high speed avenue of approach and a simple LOC if they stay on I-19, but will be forced into fighting through Tucson. Bypassing allows them to potentially avoid an urban fight and potentially prevent damage by combat or fire (it is summer) to Tucson and its contents, but they will also be forced to drastically slow their rate of advance and increase logistics difficulties and consumption. I’d offer either side may attempt to negotiate with the Tonoho O’Ohdom for assistance in passage or security as both options are either through or by their land.