Rae: Things have definitely taken a pause for a while, and I think that a "strategic stalemate" is the correct moniker for what's happening right now.
There have been some recent items of note though -
- Ukraine getting ahold of ATACMs has forced Russia to pull helicopters back further away from the front, resulting in longer flight times and less loitering on the battlefield. This should result in fewer losses of Ukrainian heavy equipment (especially with those valuable western tanks).
- On the left bank of the Dnipro, Ukraine is continuing to force Russia into an untenable situation. Russia doesn't have the manpower to force Ukrainians out, and recently some Russian units are flat out refusing orders to engage.
- Recent polling has shown an increase in the number of Russians wanting out of Ukraine. I'd say this would effect the upcoming election, but let's be real, Putin won't allow himself to lose even if the vote is against him.
- The two major rail lines from China being taken out in the last week will slow things domestically for Russia, even when it comes to domestic industry, which will start to have more of an impact on the Russian day to day.
- The ruble, despite clawing back some value in the last month, has been on a downward slide for a year now, increasing pressure on the Russian citizenry.
The longer the war drags on...I'm not sure if it benefits Russia due to Russia's ability to lean on its higher population, or if it benefits Ukraine due to the continuing attrition of Russian heavy equipment. I imagine a lot will hinge on the west continuing to provide more tanks and equipment to Ukraine. And I do think that the upcoming elections in the states will likely have a pretty big impact on American financial and material support for Ukraine, which is a damned shame (we should be supportive no matter which party is in power).