More disappointing and troubling stories from Ukraine these last few weeks.
Without getting too political, the US Congress is
still dragging its feet on, if not downright blocking, legislation to provide Ukraine with more military aid. This boggles my mind. The party that used to be the most Hawkish vis-a-vis Containment and international intervention is fast becoming isolationist, if not pro-Russian. I imagine Nixon and Reagan spinning in their graves right now.
By all accounts, the Ukrainians are running very low on artillery ammunition. European manufacturing, despite efforts to gear up closer to wartime production levels, can't keep up with demand. On the other side, the Russians have received fresh infusions of North Korean and Iranian shells, rockets, and guided ballistic missiles.
The latter have been found to contain numerous essential, Western components. The same is true of Iranian drones and Russian missiles. Either the DPRK and Iranians have gotten really good at finding ways around sanctions that have been in place for decades, or unscrupulous Western firms are colluding with dangerous dictatorships, or both. Whatever the case, it's deeply disappointing news.
I'm also troubled by reports of Ukraine's continuing difficulties in recruiting soldiers.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-r...217a653989fbc2
On the one hand, I totally get not wanting to fight in a war. After seeing photos and video of conditions on the front lines, I'd be in no hurry to enlist. On the other hand, this isn't some foreign adventure- this is a war for national survival. With Russia continuing to indiscriminately lob missiles at Ukrainian popular centers, this is an existential struggle. That said, the average age of replacement soldiers is reportedly in the 40s (WTF?!?). No amount of Western aid is going to save Ukraine if Ukrainians aren't willing to save their own country. That's easy for me to say, safe behind my keyboard, but I'm really struggling with the psychology of the average Ukrainian 18-35 year-old.
Now, an observation. I check in on the r/UkraineWarVideoReport Subreddit every few days. In the first year-and-a-half of the war, over half the videos showed ATGMs (
Saint Javelin et al) taking out Russian vehicles. Over the last 6 months, those types of videos have all but disappeared. I haven't read anything about shortages of ATGMs, but pretty much every Russian-tank-getting-killed video stars a small drone as the killer. Have I missed a story about dwindling supplies of ATGMs? Also, the number of Ukrainian artillery strike videos has gone way down over the past three months- this, of course, reinforces my first point re worsening shortages re shells and rockets.
Anyway, it's looking like Putin will win this war. The Donbass will remain under Russian occupation, and a land-bridge to Crimea (stolen in 2014) has been established. Will he go for more? It's hard to say, at this point. If Ukrainians have the will and Western materiel support to continue to grind down Russian military power, then Russian probably won't make any more significant territorial gains. It's hard to see a better outcome than stalemate for Ukraine at this point. On the other hand, if Ukrainian will continues to wane, this could be the beginning of the end of Ukrainian nationhood.
I can't end on a sour note, so here's a positive: Ukraine somehow managed to shoot down at least six Sukhoi fighter-bombers in the last week or so.
Slava Ukraini!
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