Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
I totally agree with this assessment. The point that I've been trying to make (not well, apparently), is that if the West had not supplied Ukraine with significant military aid in the first six months or so after the 2022 invasion, and Putin had been able to engineer the conquest of Ukraine in the next year or two, that Europe would be much less safe than it is now because Putin would have been emboldened by his success, and NATO would have painted itself as timid and weak. My second main argument is that providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs is the right call, as far as US foreign interests are concerned. From the recent uptick in European defense spending and the expansion of NATO to include two nations that had maintained non-aligned status throughout the entirety of the first Cold War, it would seem that said policy is widely seen in Europe as being in its constituents' best interests as well. To put it another way, I think failure/refusal to provide Ukraine with military aid would not have been in NATO's interests.
Slava Ukraini!
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I think we are in total agreement then. The first 6 months was totally logical for the US particularly given how much of the ordinance was sitting on shelves waiting to be destroyed as it was nearing its "Best use by" date. Now that we have depleted our stocks, while it is still the right thing to do, the costs of new production make it a little less clear.
I want the US to support Ukraine, but I want Europe to do more as even if a non Russian Ukraine is in US interests, this should be more of their fight as the refugee issue you mentioned effects them more directly.
Germany is my biggest sticking point. After hostilities began they could have moved harder into using US and Qatari supplied LNG, instead of continuing,
to this day, to directly fund the Russian war effort. If this is truly a European war of survival, Germany should be more willing to make more sacrifices. I know the gas from the US can be up to 10 times more expensive than the extremely cheap Russian gas but we could cut that cash flow entirely, thus saving more Ukrainian lives.
For all of this millennium Germany (the worlds 3rd largest economy) felt it could slash its military effectiveness by coasting under the US defense umbrella and made energy deals that truly emboldened Putin (including shutting down their nuclear plants at least partially due to cheap Russian gas). It annoys me. Not so much I want to abandon the good people of Ukraine, but opening our checkbook would be easier if I felt Germany was reaping more of what they had sown.
EDIT
Getting back on topic of this thread. Who in 1984 would have thought a reunited Germany would only have three divisions in 2022, none of which would be combat effective without a 3 month ramp up, and even that timeline is debatable.