Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneCollector1987
After reading your comments regarding Germany - sorry, but I am laughing.
Long ago I wrote a satire exactly about that and as I dont know if this will derail this thread I will post the relevant part if you agree.
And to the war: (and yes, I am the pessimist)
In regard to war you need two things: manpower and willpower.
The West has neither.
(I apologize for the cold language)
Compare - for instance - 1800 to today.
Back then every country had a childfactor of 4 or more (4 children born per family. And you need 2,1 to keep the number of population)
And then the countries could go to war, lose a few tenthousand or more (Napoleon anybody with about 800.000 death in Russia alone on both sides combined) and still have a population growth.
Today any NATO country has a childfactor of 1,5 or worse. So, losing people is bad, because we have no replacement, no security margin. We are barebones.
Or does anybody think that - if we enter the war - we will have no casualties?
Willpower:
We dont have it.
Remember Syria? One red line after another. Not one politician willing to pull the trigger. Just imagine that after having crossed the line of using a chemical weapon Assad would have been given a wake up call by a nuclear weapon detonated close (BUT far enough away to cause NO damage!!) to the coast of Syria.
And look at the state our weaponsindustry is in. According to a news in todays msn (based upon a report in the NZZ) even if Germany would spend every year the required 2% it will take about 40-100 years to bring back the military power of 2000.
For tanks it will be till 2066 to reach the numbers we had in 2004
We made the mistake of destroying our equipment and downsizing our productioncapabilities. Russia did not.
We may say thanks to our politicians for that.
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Within the next 10 years, probably within the next 5, you will have autonomous drone swarms deployed by the US and China, at a minimum, that will simultaneously deploy thousands to tends of thousands of drones into a combat zone to search and destroy any militarily valuable asset in a wide footprint. Ballistic missiles will be used to deploy drone swarms thousands of miles away.
The value of everything that is not a drone is fading rapidly, including manpower.