Yep- I think of the model of cooling caused by particulate matter as presented by “Medical Effects of Nuclear War”. Shortened growing seasons and smaller growing zones complicate the disruption of industrial agriculture, processing, and distribution. Interestingly for a mid-80s study, they point to unsanitary food processing, handling, and storage as a disease vector citing the growing dependency on prepackaged products and automated cleaning practices.
Growing up, we still had a kitchen garden, some fruit trees, chickens, and a few feeder pigs. That, game and wild gathered foods like poke salad and muscadines were all pretty routinely handled. We canned, smoked, dried, pickled, etc. My grandmother still made soap, candles, herbal medicines, and vinegar. Friends had cows for milk, and there were even people who still tanned hides, ran the occasional still, and quietly grew the five-leafed herb. At the time, we figured we were pretty self sufficient (“A Country Boy Can Survive” was an anthem to some folks). Even so, we were still dependent on industrial products- salt, feed, fuels, fertilizers, machinery, even seeds were all things we either couldn’t produce or couldn’t match in quantity or quality with store bought. Nobody plowed with mules, made black powder, or made the medications people depended on. There were a few steam powered mills still around, but they were fading.
With that in mind, I tend to think even a small drop in temperature coupled with the disruption inflicted by the attacks on petroleum and associated damage to transportation and production networks would be more than enough. Even as “self sufficient” as we were, we’d have been very quickly set back to an early 1800s level of existence without the supporting infrastructure that made such an existence possible. In less rural areas the effect would likely be even worse. Lack of basic knowledge in sanitation would feed sickness which in turn would breed more disease. I’m betting just the lack of soap and clean water would see quite a few people off. All of this would be exacerbated by lack of calories to perform the physical labor now required, seeing more die off until carrying capacity is reached. The idea of using food rations as a form of currency as in Krakow, makes eminent sense.
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