Prompt: estimate the carrying capacity of Dallas, TX, assuming a general loss of electricity production aside from small portable generators, and the loss of refined petroleum products. Assume no trade with outside parties.
Grok's answer:
Estimating the carrying capacity of Dallas, Texas, under the conditions you’ve described—a loss of electricity production (except for small portable generators) and the loss of refined petroleum products, with no trade from outside parties—is a complex task. It requires assessing how these disruptions would affect the population’s ability to meet basic needs like food, water, shelter, and sanitation, while relying solely on local resources. Let’s break this down step-by-step, making reasonable assumptions based on Dallas’s geography, population, and resources.
Dallas has a population of about
1.3 million people in the city proper, with the broader metro area exceeding 7 million. For this estimate, I’ll focus on the city itself, as the "no trade" condition isolates it from the surrounding region. Carrying capacity in this scenario is the maximum number of people the area can sustainably support given the constraints.
Key Factors- Food Supply
Without electricity or refined petroleum, industrial agriculture collapses. No fuel for tractors, no refrigeration, no powered irrigation pumps. Small generators might run limited equipment, but fuel for them would be scarce and finite.
Dallas sits in the Blackland Prairie, a fertile region historically good for farming. Pre-industrial methods (manual labor, animal power) could be used, but the transition would be slow, and most urban land isn’t currently farmland.
Local crops like corn, wheat, and sorghum could be grown, alongside cattle (Texas is a cattle state). However, only about 1-2% of Dallas County is farmland today—roughly 5,000-10,000 acres. A sustainable yield might be 50-100 bushels of corn per acre annually with primitive methods, providing 1-2 million calories per acre. For 10,000 acres, that’s 10-20 billion calories yearly, enough to feed 10,000-20,000 people at 2,000 calories/day, assuming all land is converted and harvested efficiently.
Hunting (deer, rabbits) and fishing (Trinity River, local lakes) could supplement this, but game would deplete quickly under pressure from 1.3 million people.
- Water Supply
Dallas relies on reservoirs like Lake Ray Hubbard and Lake Lewisville, fed by the Trinity River. Without electric pumps, water treatment and distribution fail. People could manually fetch water from rivers or lakes, but contamination risks rise without purification (small generators might power basic filtration for a tiny fraction of the population).
Annual rainfall in Dallas is about 37 inches. Rainwater harvesting could help, but with no infrastructure, most would be lost. A household of 4 might collect 20,000 gallons/year with effort, enough for drinking and minimal use, but scaling this to 1.3 million is impractical without preparation.
- Shelter and Heating
Existing housing would remain, but no electricity means no air conditioning in brutal Texas summers or heating in winter. Wood burning could work for heat, but local forests (e.g., Great Trinity Forest) would be stripped fast. Small generators might power fans or heaters for a few, but fuel runs out.
- Sanitation and Health
No electricity or fuel means no sewage systems or waste removal. Disease would spike—cholera, dysentery—especially with a dense population and limited clean water. Medical care would revert to pre-industrial levels, reliant on local knowledge and scavenged supplies.
- Energy and Transport
Portable generators provide minimal power, but fuel (gasoline, diesel) isn’t replenished. Horses or human labor replace vehicles, drastically slowing movement of goods and people. This reinforces isolation and limits resource gathering.
Estimation
In this scenario, Dallas’s carrying capacity hinges on food and water, as they’re the most immediate limits. Pre-industrial societies often supported 50-100 people per square mile in fertile areas without trade or technology. Dallas County is 873 square miles, but much is urban, not arable. If 5-10% of land (50-100 square miles) could be farmed effectively, that suggests a capacity of 2,500-10,000 people at subsistence levels. Water access might support more initially, but sanitation and disease would cut numbers fast.
Realistically, the initial 1.3 million would face mass starvation, disease, and conflict within months, reducing the population dramatically. After a chaotic collapse, a steady-state carrying capacity might settle around
5,000-15,000 people, relying on local farming, river water, and scavenged resources. This assumes survivors adapt quickly to primitive methods and avoid total societal breakdown.
This is a rough estimate—actual outcomes depend on human ingenuity, weather, and how fast order unravels. What do you think about this scenario? Want to tweak any assumptions?