[Raellus]

What is the eventual resolution of the Ukraine War?

Russia's reclaimed most of Kursk, so Ukraine's attempt to secure a high-value bargaining chip appears to be yet another costly failure, those scare troops and AFVs better spent elsewhere. Putin doesn't seem likely to budge. He continues to press to gain more Ukrainian territory, still pounding Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones on a daily basis. Despite heavy losses with every fresh offensive operation, there's seemingly no end to Russia's military manpower (relative to Ukrainian manpower, at least), and no more serious talk of a Russian economic collapse. At least there's been less Russian nuclear saber-rattling since Trump's taken office.

Zelensky is similarly determined not to give ground (literally, as well as figuratively). His position is much more precarious than Putin's. The only card Ukraine has is the determination to continue fighting, increasing the cost for every subsequent Russian gain (a cost Putin seems willing to pay ad infinitum). Ukraine's is not a strong position, and it appears to be reliant on continued foreign aid- something its former biggest benefactor now seems unlikely to provide going forward. That said, what alternative does Ukraine have? Why end the war when it means both significant territorial loss and no US-backed security guarantee for the future? Under those circumstances, as long as Putin remains in power, Russia will assuredly be back for more.

And what of Trump's campaign promises to end the war (within a week of taking office, no less)?

Whilst taking an overall pro-Russian stance, POTUS seems to vacillate with every round of talks. He seems to swing towards whichever party he spoke to last- Russia one day, NATO the next, back to Russia, and, every once-in-a-while, Ukraine (4/26/25). US diplomacy seems scattershot and aimless, a far cry from the single-minded focus of the Cold War era. It seems more mood-based than anything else, predicated on primarily on personal relationships and ego-stroking rather than any particular geopolitical concerns. As a Cold War kid, I still can't quite believe what's happening on the diplomatic front. It feels like we're living a really long episode of the Twilight Zone.

So, how does this all end?

-