Web, I think your assessment is very reasonable, logical, and well-written. I can definitely envision the Soviets taking a more conservative, wait-and-see approach, especially because it looks like the PACT forces in East Germany were on the ascendency after the initial shock of the G.D.R. surprise attack. I took a look at the v1.0 timeline and roughly a month-and-a-half elapses between the Bundeswher invasion of East Germany and the U.S. intervention.
I hope you don't think that I am arguing alternative interpretations simply for the sake of arguing. I'm just sort of thinking "out loud", as it were, and playing a bit of the devil's advocate. Nowhere in canon does it mention Soviet naval units attempting to interdict shipments of men and material to Europe so I realize that I am going out on a rhetorical limb here. I guess I'm not so much arguing what happened in the T2K timeline- your interpretation fits canon very well- but what the Soviets would have/should have done if such a scenario had actually taken place. Consider this an alternative alternative history.
I understand that the Soviet regime had changed from the 1984 government that nearly ordered a nuclear strike on the U.S. (this decision resulted from misunderstandings stemming from the NATO Able Archer wargame); it just strikes me as somewhat uncharacteristic that the Soviets would not act more forcefully to the unprovoked West German attack on their WTO ally. I imagine that they would assume- incorrectly, but still- that the GDR was acting with the blessing, if not at the direction of, the U.S./NATO. For a signatory NATO member to act unilaterally in such a fashion would have been very difficult for the premiere/politburo to believe/accept. For them to sit on their hands while the U.S. reinforces its position in Europe just seems very un-Soviet. We're talking about a nightmare scenario here for the Soviets- once again, Germany is playing the aggressor and making itself a clear and present danger to the security of Mother Russia. In fact, with their forces stretched thin in Europe and scattered all over east and central Asia, I could even see the Soviets resorting to the nuclear option earlier than they did in the T2K timeline- in fact, nearly as soon as U.S. forces cross the frontier into East Germany.
That said, I would like to reiterate that I think your assessment/interpretation of what happened between October 7th and late November, 1996 (in the T2KU), is very well thought-out and corresponds closely to what's established in the official v1.0 timeline; I am more than content to accept and use what you've outlined in my T2KU.
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