In general I agree with the idea that by 2000, likely sooner, both functional tanks and ATGMs are going to be pretty rare. Even at a ratio of 10 ATGMs per killed tank (missed shots, non-kill hits, weapon destroyed, misfire, etc) there's going to be a lot of dead tanks. Let's remember that tanks will also be targeted with AGMs, other tanks, mines, bombs, and Major General Lackofmaintenance. Even tanks that survive fighting won't necessarily be mission capable by 2000 as they're one of the more complicated vehicles to keep running.
I had another thought about US production for the Chinese front. I could see a US equivalent to the RPG-76 being designed and produced. If they can be built in huge quantities they can be used against everything that's not a tank. Such a weapon would be made of stamped parts so it could be cranked out of hastily retooled factories.
As we've seen from Vietnam onwards, mechanized armies have vulnerable supply chains. Disrupting those limits how far or fast the mechanized forces can move.
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